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I'm not really sure what your disagreement with me is then other than risk appetite and investment value. My stance this entire thread is that Average MLEs working at xAI make the a likely comparable comp to other MLEs at other FAANGs, which is ballparked at 300k to 350k. Part of that is equity so the likely take home is lower. It's not enough to retire early or live like kings or really any of the grandiose claims made up thread that I originally responded to...
Thanks I'll take that rhetorical trick under consideration. However something can be worthless at the moment and theoretically still be worth more latter. It entirely will depend on the individuals estimation of its long term payoff and the time horizon on which they want a return on it.
I would assert that to me personally, equity in xAI earned from working there is not valuable to me for a number of reasons that are beyond monetary. If I was like you and could purchase it on a private exchange I also might.
Maybe, I'm likely to be wrong, betting against musk seems like a bad idea but at the same time the man just keeps betting on black, eventually he's going to lose and I currently do not see the value difference that xAI has over its entrenched rivals. A non-woke ai is great but I'm not sure to will convert into monetary value. I also think he made it to piss on Sam Altman in their little spat.
I likely do value stock that I make as part of compensation much less than stock I buy as investment. I'd say my time horizon for a return is much shorter. That's just my preference for compensation. It's not better, it definitely has lost me money before but at some level money has lesser importance to me. I argued this point from my personal beliefs as someone who is in a position to go potentially work for xAI, it's not an abstract argument like it might be for you.
Well, let's go back to how this exchange began, maybe that will help clarify things. I said:
You then replied:
And then I spent a number of posts explaining to you how incorrect this attitude is. My arguments were highly successful, to the point where you are arguing against your original statement, saying that $10k would be a low ball offer for "their fake money that is worth literally nothing", and in fact, the actual value "is entirely dependent on the individuals estimation of its long term payoff and the time horizon on which they want a return on it". Yes, thank you, that's exactly what I was trying to get across the entire time.
Let me then helpfully quote yet again my original post:
And indeed, I am exactly correct: X AI valuation in May 2024 was $24B, and in Dec 2024 they raised another $6B, resulting in $50B post-money valuation. This is 80% increase in stock price. Assuming they got RSUs, and that their comp split was 50% cash 50% stocks, the $300k is now worth $420k (blaze it). If (which is more likely), they got options, instead of RSUs, then assuming, say, 30% gap between stock price implied by 409A valuation and the preferred price (you know what these two are, right?), then their $150k/year worth of stock options granted at May 2024 valuation is now worth $500-600k/year (if you don't understand how I came up with this number, X AI's Grok will helpfully explain it to you, just copypaste this paragraph to it verbatim, and enable Think mode).
Of course, if they got options before the May round, they might be making over $1M/year now.
I largely agree with all of this.
You are completely unwarranted in making this assumption, and you're only saying this to be nasty towards me. It's a really cheap shot, doubly so because I cannot show how wrong you are without doxxing myself. You can do better than this.
I did not mean for this to be a cheap shot so if it came across as one, I apologize. You could straight up say that, yes you too, are an MLE in this field, so it is also a consideration for you. That's not doxing, I'd take that at a face value statement, honor system. No proof needed until proven otherwise.
That said as far as cheap shots you seem to like giving as good as you get... Let's take the spice level down.
Then we agree on this...
We disagree on this, because they aren't taking home any more money. This is still entirely dependent on whether or not xAI IPOs or provides a vehicle to sell their equity. Currently it doesn't sound like there is a plan to do so. The stock rising might be a great sign, but shit happens and if xAI kicks it tomorrow then they didn't actually make all that extra money. Counting it now is counting chickens before they hatch.
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