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Notes -
My prediction for failure mode of us healthcare;
Good doctors (most, not all) become too frustrated with the insurance regime and become cash only concierge providers for the wealthy.
The surging demand paired with vanishing supply for those who cannot afford out of pocket healthcare creates healthcare gridlock (look at the British NHS for an example of this). No one can get seen in a timely manner, the care that is provided is perfunctory, follow up visits are non-existent.
Amateur and grey market pharmacology takes off and we see a spike in accidental overdose deaths. These stats, however, are probably laundered by calling some of them suicides, some of them related to pre-existing conditions, or even more blatant cooking of the books.
Eventually, Federal laws do change for "low level" or "routine" medical care; You can do visit local clinics to get band-aids and aspirin and not have to get it from a doctor, but some sort of glorified EMT. This expands to cover most types of prescription drugs as well.
Medical insurers become financially insolvent gradually as the healthy and wealthy drop out of the system. Eventually, some tech company figures out how to create non-insurance-insurance wherein they can deny you based on risk factors (like insurance used to work). The work around is that they aren't technically insurance, but function as some sort of mutual liquidity market (you're, very technically speaking, exchange mutual contracts with other individuals to help defer costs of medical care at an undetermined date in the future, the tech company in the middle just provides a digital marketplace ... something along those lines).
All of the Americans who want health insurance have it (Obamacare: Hooray!) but all of the Americans who have health insurance cannot actually see a decent doctor in any timeperiod less than 1 - 2 years. Most simply rely on long term prescription drugs for pain management and placebo effect.
Americans without healthcare (and without independent wealth) create this wholly new side industry of non-insurance-insurance and, in so doing, create new demand for medical care provided by doctors, perhaps, not from this country originally - or ever (i.e. medical tourism partially or fully covered by the not-insurance-insurance).
People (not yet doctors) see that they can pursue medical careers without going to the traditional medical schools or passing boards. A whole new shadow-doctor industry staffs up. After 5 - 10 years of this group demonstrating not only equal, but superior health outcomes, the traditional Medical School cartel is finally broken up.
I think this takes about 20 years, starting roughly the time the Social Security Trust becomes insolvent.
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