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Notes -
It always seemed to me that the Croatian Operation Storm, which terminated the separatist war in Krajina in 1995, was seen by NATO decision makers after 2014 as the ideal course of action to be repeated in the Donbass. Every decision was subordinated to this, and Putin knew it. It’s not a baseless idea, as the Russian state has been afflicted by internal crises before, and the central government normally becomes weak and wavering as a result. It seemed reasonable to assume that there will be no serious Russian reprisal once the Ukrainians are able to recapture the area in a swift operation abetted by the Americans in such a case. The problem, of course, is that this requires high levels of discipline and patience, and the Russians to be so dumb as not to think of preventive measures while they still can.
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