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They won't fight back without power for the same reason that they wouldn't fight when they had power. "They" (the former establishment) are a bloated, hollowed out husk. They lack the ability or the consensus to take decisive action. I say this as someone that would have partially preferred that they stayed in power just for the stability it would have provided (Trump's actions will have huge unforeseen consequences - both positive and negative, even his most ardent supporters have to admit this). A competent "They" would have thrown the full power of the state against Trump the second he lost power the first time. Either that or used media manipulation to turn the page on him. In the end, they lacked the resolve to do either. They waited until it was clear he wasn't going away on his own, then launched a last minute, poorly orchestrated series of legal assaults that did little more than boost his popularity. Things that are too weak to defend themselves die. That's the way of the world.
You can argue that 'they' tried and failed, but not that they waited until the last minute.
The Mar-a-Lago raid, which was on August 22, was among the start of the legal cases against Trump, timed in part with the New York business fraud case where Trump was sued by the NY AG in September 22. However, the Fulton County legal case was launched in February 21, and the prosecutor team was coordinating with the White House by at least May 22' when Nathan Wade went to DC for a conference with the White House counsel, which was a period where the Democratic-aligned cases were implicitly being coordinated. The '22 legal offensive, in turn, was not only timed for the summer at a time that would create maximum pressure on the Trump wing of the party in the mid-terms, but staggered / set in such a way that the 2023 indictment stacking set the initial stage of the Republican primary season (where it might have been used by anti-Trump factions against him), and with the potential convictions for the '24 election (where the 'Trump is a felon' line would be used as planned).
The legal cases, in turn, were the supporting strategy after the Democrat's initial main effort, which was a coordinated effort to try and help the Never Trump wing of the Republican party, represented/led by Liz Cheney, retake control of the Republican Party via the medium of the January 6 hearings. This was in play in 2021, not only with the second Trump impeachment, but also by July 2021, when House Speaker Nancey Pelosi pulled rank and refused to let the Republican House Minority Leader seat his Kevin McCarthy seat his selection of Republican members, while keeping seating- and prime (and favorable) media coverage of the anti-trump remainders like Liz Cheney, who was used to promote the hearings bi-partisan and in turn received glowing coverage from the Democratic party-media alliance in an attempt to boost her and her faction in the inter-Republican leadership struggle that was building after Trump's loss. During this period, the Democratic Party was going all-in on the January 6 investigations and prosecutions as the way to discredit and delist Trump.
The issue for this 'Plan A' was that it failed on two fronts. First, Liz Cheney lost the Republican leadership struggle, decisively, and ended up getting the Never Trump wing of the party more or less branded as controlled opposition. Second, the January 6 hearings were timed to coincide with summer 22', and thus shaping the lead-in for the fall mid-term elections, but did not actually get the political impact the democrats were hoping for.
So, in timeline review-
2021 - Initial Reaction year Jan 6 line of effort: Initial shock reaction / reconsolidate control of government / start building the narrative Legal line of effort: Second Trump Impeachment, begin legal case building on both Jan 6 and non-Jan 6 lines. Republican party line of effort: Start never-Trump alliance with dissident faction of Republican party
2022 - Mid-Term year Jan 6 line of effort: Summer hearing fiesta, intended to establish dominant narrative for mid-terms and history Legal line of effort: Coordinate, begin initial suites, summer Mar-a-Lago raid kickoff Republican party line of effort: Attempt to leverage never-Trump splits, Trump association for mid-term advantage
2023 - Republican Primary year Jan 6 line of effort: Hearings largely concluding with Republicans retaking House, drawing down hearings Legal line of effort: Stacking indictments by summer, setting stage for '24 convictions Republican party line of effort: Attempt (but fail) to support Nikki Haley in Republican primary
2024 - Election year Jan 6 line of effort: Line of effort broadly expended; voters not responding well to it Legal line of Effort: Secure New York conviction, attempt ballot bans off of Insurrection theory Republican party line of effort: General election strategy
The lines of effort might have failed, but this was because they had largely burned out by 2024, rather than because they started at the last minute.
I think you're vastly underestimating what throwing the full power of the state at someone looks like. If you have full control over institutions, and the other side is going to pretend whatever you do is akin to killing babies, it basically means you have cart blanche to do what you want as long as you keep your base somewhat appeased. Trump seems to understand this. The old establishment didn't.
Media games/hearings to soften up support are a milquetoast response. Especially if your survival is on the line.
While I am glad you've now moved your position to 'it was milquetoast' rather than 'it was last minute,' your starting premise is still incorrect- the Democrats did not have full control over institutions, which is why building public support is a requirement, especially when survival is on the line.
The state is not actually a monolith of power. The state is an abstraction for groups of people each with their own host of powers, and 'the full power of the [group of people]' hinges on the ability of those component groups of people to agree to work together. But the flip side is that is you are too hostile to the sorts of power centers in the state, i.e. groups of people already within the state, then the state is in conflict with itself. And in the case of the United States of America, the state is deliberately designed to be able to shut down the power of the state.
When the Democrats came into power in 2021, they- rightly and wrongly in different ways- perceived they were not in full control of the entire system. They did not, in fact, control the Judiciary- hence the numerous proposals to pack the Supreme Court. They did not, in fact, control the entire bureaucracy- much as they were able to do Resistance activities from within the government, there were/still are substantial parts of the behemoth of state that are not firmly or uniformly Democrat. This is particularly true for the security state apparatus. And, finally, the Democrats were not in total control of the Legislative branch- they had a majority, but a fragile majority, and it only would have taken a handful of Democratic dissidents to paralyze the Senate and thus the ability to legislate.
To utilize the 'full power of the state' against Trump, the Democrats leading anti-Trump efforts didn't need to keep their base appeased, they needed to keep their political rivals appeased as well, because their rivals- not only Republicans and Red Tribers but also Democratic party rivals- are part of the state whose power / assent / cooperation is required to use the 'full power of the state.'
Hence, in turn, the attempts in 2021- from the very start- to establish a managed opposition relationship with the Never Trump Republican wing of the Republican Party. Because if the opposition party leadership were to be on board, then that would be a whole host of powers of the state additionally available.
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Again, they did. They took thier shot (both literally and figuratively) and missed.
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