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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 17, 2025

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I don't think State badly misjudged Russia's temperament, at least not for lack of intel and understanding. You can read Bill Burn's diplomatic cables where he talks about Ukraine being an absolute red line for all Russians, even liberal ones.

It really doesn’t feel like they anticipated or were preparing for a war though. It took them four months of panicking and hand-wringing before the first substantial aid packages started to arrive.

I suspect this might be because they expected Russia to roll Ukraine in 72 hours. But I'm open to State just not knowing what they really should know by virtue of their job.

I don't know which liberal Russians Bill Burn polled, the ones I've heard from were unanimous on "Russia gotta stay the fuck out of Donbass with their 'polite green men'".

I think the ones Bill Burns polled were the ones near positions of power. Have you heard of a guy named Alexei Nalvany? Not that he ever had a particularly realistic shot at power, but he was the Western-beloved liberal opposition to Putin...and in 2014 after Russia seized Crimea he said "Is Crimea some sort of sausage sandwich to be passed back and forth?" and told Ukrainians to get real, they weren't getting Crimea back. (FWIW, I believe he recanted in 2023 from prison, but at that point I think he had probably realized that he did not need to fear electoral repercussions.)