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And yet it really seems as though the signals coming from the US administration are 100% favourable to Putin and 100% negative to Ukraine and Europe. "Ukraine shouldn't have started it", Trump says now. How can this music play well at home if home isn't full of Russophiles (and I'm sure you're right, it's not)? I think the extent of the reversal is becoming more exrtreme by the day, to the distress of Europeans, who are beginning to feel not abandoned (which would be one thing), but as if they are being suddenly turned on by a former friend, which is quite another and will go down in history.
I doubt that Trump’s comments play well if taken literally, but they’re not. The median American wants peace and doesn’t care about borders in Eastern Europe. The slightly better informed note that Crimea voted to join Russia, and democracy counts for something even when it’s retarded.
There is widespread distaste for Zelenskyy, ranging from ‘corrupt freeloader’ to ‘effeminate clown’ to ‘look at the swastikas’. The public might be sympathetic to Ukrainian soldiers and citizens but not, generally, to their elites, and almost everyone thinks that forcing Ukrainian elites to accept a deal is the most important task for peace.
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You don't have to be a Russophile to think that Ukraine, collectively, made a poor national choice by trying to court a Western alliance when Russia was bound to react negatively. I don't actually think the "Ukraine shouldn't have started it" comment will play particularly well here unless Trump manages to steer the narrative very aggressively (he might be able to, I am sure there are interesting CIA documents he could declassify) but peace probably will.
And when I say predictable – Obama himself – hardly a Russophile, I don't think – said that Russia would always control the escalatory cycle over Ukraine simply because they perceived of it as a core national interest and the West didn't. Bill Burns' declassified cables reveal similar knowledge. It is not particularly shocking (although I do admit to being a bit surprised but not shocked by the SMO, if that makes sense) to anyone who listened to Putin, or Obama, that this would happen. Given that knowledge, you don't have to be a Russophile to believe that Ukraine played its hand poorly by choosing the West over Russia. (I am not saying that is the only opinion that is valid, just that it is a valid opinion.)
Outside of England, Europe has not exactly acted like our friend – we spy on them, they spy on us, they build massive natural gas pipelines to Russia after we tell them that is not a great idea and they should stop, they laugh at us when we tell them that is a silly idea, they try to tell Jeff Bezos what he can do with his own social media companies, they accuse us of human rights violations, we pass a bill authorizing an invasion of Belgium if they do anything about it. Friendly, maybe, but friends? Maybe that is overstating it.
And suddenly? The United States told Europe during the Obama administration that they needed to pay more in defense spending and that the United States was going to pivot to Asia. This is not new. This is longstanding US policy priorities working themselves out.
There seems to be a motte/bailey dynamic here. You put it more mildly, so maybe you will disagree somewhat with the bailey, but it's common enough that I hope you indulge me.
Motte: It's reasonable for states to care about their international influence, more so when their neighbors are concerned. When a highly culturally and linguistically related people and a former colony attempts to steer away, expect attempts to prevent this.
Bailey: It was predictable all along that these attempts include abrupt abandonment of other options in favor of an all out war, with all of the inevitable costs that would ensue in the best case scenario. It also includes doubling down for years when the best case scenario did not materialize.
Just tragic geopolitical dominos falling and rulers forced into ugly decisions, nothing to do with a septuagenarian autocrat gradually detaching from the real world, ending up spending fortunes and immolating hundreds of thousands of both his enemy's and his own citizens on sacrificial pyre of boomer retardation
Hmm. From my point of view, what you describe as the bailey is a subset of what you describe as the motte. Or perhaps the motte here is offering a moral justification while the bailey is offering a prediction.
I do not know that the bailey always follows from the motte here, but in this case I would describe the war as predictable not necessarily inevitable and I describe it as predictable because you can see Obama or Burns or RAND predict it. Obviously Putin has a say, and Putin's not clockwork – I was honestly, as I say, surprised but not shocked when the SMO kicked off when it did and the way that it did (I thought that Russia had locked down their vital assets in Crimea and might try less brazen methods in the Donbass, keeping the conflict at a low simmer to keep Ukraine locked in conflict. I do recall in 2014 when Russia seized Crimea and there was a feeling of shock from some quarters that I did not share.)
I think that individuals and leaders always have a say. But what I think, based on reading Western sources, is that "Russia responds some degree of violently to a coup in Ukraine" was probably not a response that was unique to Putin. I also think that Western sources were well aware that Russia might escalate the conflict in response to what they viewed as Western provocations because they say this and they continued to offer the perceived provocation anyway.
So, predictable. And if something is predictable it is possible to question whether the choices that led to the actions were good decisions even if you think the predictable thing is not justified. Moral correctness does not absolve someone from the obligation of foresight. I think you can think that Russia's invasion is illegal, unjustified and evil while also thinking that Ukraine was pragmatically unwise to pursue rapprochement with the West. I don't think that's a hard baby to split. I'm not sure how that plays into your motte/bailey assessment, but I really think people should be able to isolate their moral judgments from their assessments of how the world works. Once you understand how the world works, you will be better able to reintegrate your moral judgments. At least that's my point of view.
Rest assured, morality is not a factor in what I'm talking about here
Politicians say lots of things all of the time, it's practically their job.
I'm certain there are numerous records of Western and Russian leaders saying things that totally support any given picture, including this one. It just seems like painting targets centered around a bullet hole in the wall after the fact. "Talking a lot and lying, contradicting, exaggerating routinely" applies to Putin at least as much as to any other big politician.
Are Putin's decisions sound, practical? maximizing interests of his own country, roughly based on reality as it can be observed?
It sure seems like many faulty premises were involved based on what actually happened. Perhaps the inherent unpredictability and dependence on whims of a lone, seemingly unaccountable man should be included in the equation, but it's far from easy, and at this point we are straying from what you were saying.
Based on Russian rhetoric and expecting from them self-interested actions, you might well argue that moving westward was actually more sound of strategy after 2014 than before.
Threats from NATO? Leaving aside the existence of ICMBs, NATO members having veto right about new admissions, NATO states that are already on Russian border...surely that problem was solved already by the festering wound Russia inflicted on the country.
Protection of Russians in Donbass from oppression? Given that war has cooled down substantially and annual civilian casualties reached nearly 0 by 2021, things are looking good. Worst they can be expected to do is what, properly annexxing it?
Maybe Russia wants to have Ukraine in its cultural sphere, advance their language and political influence? Surely they must realize they burned those bridges back in 2014. And it's not like attacking harder will make things better.
Basically, I think there's this 'noble savage' view of Russia/Putin in the sense that there are supposed to be totally sound, realistic, predicable motivations in the driver's seat, they're just not easy to grasp for a Westerner, but I don't believe any of it holds up or amounts to more than wishful attempts to force orderly models on a messy world.
Really? Can you show me records of Putin saying "really Ukraine joining NATO is fine, I don't care"? Or Medevev or Yeltsin, even?
It is hard to know the totality of information Putin is acting on. But on balance I think Putin has governed fairly well, from where I sit. You can look at "national vital signs" types of stats like life expectancy to see that. I think that Russians are slightly more paranoid than is corresponding with reality, but I think their general concerns about NATO are quite sane. Whether or not the "SMO" will prove to be a massive win or a massive blunder is probably too soon to tell, but my guess is that it will end up being a win, albeit one with a cost.
Yes, I actually think there is a decent argument to be made here. Unfortunately(?) I was following this back before 2014 and so I consider mistakes made at that time and even before to be worth re-litigating.
Sure, I agree that people are always trying to essentially force orderly models on a messy world. But whatever messy eccentricities there are with Putin and Russia, I think that "great powers are likely to intervene to stop hostile alliance formation on its borders" is just sort of something you should anticipate as a general rule. I think this in part because I, too, live in a great power and when the shoe was on the other foot (as it has been several times) we responded with military coercion.
Now, I agree that this general model is necessarily fine-grained enough to predict exactly what Russia's specific response was going to be. But it's good enough to anticipate a hostile response.
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It makes sense based on these considerations that the US would reduce funding and expect the EU to step up to help it with a shared aim of containing Russia. That is not what is happening though. Rather the US is actively taking Russia's side in the conflict and ideologically allying itself with an autocracy over (most of) the world's democracies. Europe's minor encroachments on religious freedoms are obviously far more problematic ideologically to the US administration today than any number of assassinations of opponents, state control of media and corruption that happen in Russia. Don't pretend that this change isn't extraordinary and new.
The outcome is now looking like a US-Russia led alliance, with the EU trying to build an army and contain Russia with the hopes the US changes its mind before the conflict expands.
I hear the opinion that Ukraine did not act wisely in courting the west but it's a great players view of the world that doesn't come naturally to me. The people were given freedom and chose the west, you can say they could have collectively seen the geopolitical writing on the wall and gone against all their own preferences to avoid being invaded, but that sounds like victim blaming to me. Democracies cannot act strategically in that manner, it's one of the reasons they need and deserve protecting.
From what I can tell the United States is still providing Ukraine with weapons, which means they are actively taking Ukraine's side in the conflict.
European divergence from shared Western human rights norms is particularly problematic to Americans because Europe has (kinda sorta) been our ally in promoting traditional Western human rights norms. If Europe refuses to cooperate ideologically with the United States, it disrupts that traditional shared project.
Of course, Europe's encroachments on religious freedoms and other unalienable rights are not minor by American standards. The United States winked at this sort of thing in the past so as not to ruffle feathers and also because there are a contingent of Americans who agree with Europe's approach on these matters (more or less) but America thinking that European speech laws is a problem is not new at all and European leaders should have anticipated the possibility that right-wing leadership would criticize them. However, U.S. criticism of European actions is not surprising or new (again recall that the States passed the Invade The Hague act in 2002!) and does not mean that the US is going to leave NATO and join CSTO or anything like that.
On the flip side, United States is already willing to cooperate with regimes such as Saudi Arabia, Israel, or France that assassinate their political opponents, regimes like England that have state control of media, and regimes like Ukraine that are deeply corrupt, and so on. It engages in trade with China despite that nation's absolutely atrocious human rights record. It should not be a surprise to you that it is willing to drop sanctions on Russia.
This does not seem like a serious possibility to me, and I wonder where you got this idea. I've seen the United States talk about lifting sanctions with Russia, which is not an "alliance" any more than Nordstream constitutes an "alliance" between Germany and Russia. Trump trying to hit the same reset button that Obama, Bush, etc. tried to hit does not mean that the United States is allying with Russia.
Well for context keep in mind that Ukraine was split on the question of Western rapprochement. In fact the people you mention violently overthrew their own elected government in a coup because their elected government decided not to pursue the West and elements of the people, backed by Western intelligence services, did not like that. In response, the people in other parts of Ukraine, backed by Russian intelligence services, violently overthrew their own government in a counter-coup. None of that is according to normal democratic political norms, at least in the West.
As far as victim-blaming goes – I think that the government has a responsibility to protect its people from adversaries. If a country's government fails to build up its military and is invaded, the invader is morally at fault for its decisions, but the government failed in its responsibility and it is more than fair to assign blame to its actions. But military readiness is not the only way to protect your citizens, and it is perfectly fair to criticize the actions a government takes if those actions lead to back outcomes regardless of whether or not the bad outcomes are the result of malign third-party actors. You can believe that Ukraine made bad political decisions while still believing that moral culpability for the invasion(s) of Ukraine rests with Russia. Criticism of a government's actions is not only defensible but necessary because criticism is how you learn from failure.
If democracies cannot act strategically [which is not my position], then they deserve to be replaced by a form of government that is better at protecting its citizens.
I mean, the US is probably paying some DEI consultancy bills still too, but it doesn't say much about the direction of travel or the intended end point.
Where I got the idea is just listening to the drumbeat of criticism of Ukraine and praise for Russia, and the US's willingness to throw away all the bargaining chips immediately. Has a technical alliance emerged, no. Is it apparent to Europe that they now face a transformed world after 80 years of relative confidence in the US's ideological preferences, yes.
Regarding religious freedoms in Europe, I think that American concerns are pretty much bullshit and an excuse, and that if Trump introduced things like protest exclusion zones outside, I dunno, military hospitals instead of abortion centres (such things were seemingly the thing JD Vance is mainly exercised about at a time of grave geopolitical danger) ... if Trump introduced those then the same people complaining about Europe's restrictions wouldn't bat an eyelid.
If the United States had ended sanctions and weapons deliveries, they would have thrown away their bargaining chips (although not really since they could resume them both at a moment's notice). But instead they are expecting concessions from Russia. That's how bargaining works.
I think that wise European actors (the French) have more or less always understood that American ideological preferences (or perhaps more relevantly, interests in Europe) were contingent and not permanent.
Certainly I don't think J.D. Vance giving a speech is at the level of the United States threatening to destroy the British economy (which we did in 1956 after they invaded Egypt) so I'm not sure I buy this idea you seem to have that the United States has just been a team player to Europe since the end of World War Two.
I mean I dunno what to tell you, it might be that it's an excuse for the administration, but the bottom-up sentiment is real. My recollection is that mainstream right-wing media in the United States has been complaining about this for a long time. Certainly I've complained about this sort of thing on here.
Aren't military hospitals likely to be on military bases where your rights are already restricted...? I assure you if Trump followed the U.K.'s lead of cracking down on silently standing outside of abortion clinics many righties in the United States would be angry. But of course one of Trump's first acts was pardoning anti-abortion protestors.
To reply to a couple of other points, the bargaining chips they gave away are (1) saying ahead of the negotiations that Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions, and (2) saying ahead of the negotiations that NATO membership is off the table. These things may not be achievable but it seems malevolent for the US to say so unilaterally before the negotiations.
And whether Vance's speech was at the level of 1956 ... I admit I don't know the story there. And what I do know as a matter of fact is that Europeans are interpreting what's coming out of the US as seismic shift in US policy. Assuming they don't wind this back, it is shaping up to be a realignment on a scale much bigger (and frankly scarier) than anything in my lifetime, though I guess I wouldn't know about 70 years ago.
Maybe, but on the other hand it might have been necessary to get Russia to even come to the table, I'm not certain. Particularly on the second point it might not be in perceived US interests to attempt to give Ukraine NATO membership.
This seems plausible, but it seems to me that if they were caught completely flat-footed by this it was because of willful ignorance.
Good. The United States cannot fight Russia and China at the same time alone. European NATO should have the resources to deter Russia single-handedly or with limited support from the US at most, the US should not need to hold its hand every step of the way (this is entirely consistent with the US being an enthusiastic NATO partner and assisting with deterring Russia, by the by).
As far as Vance criticizing Europe for suppressing political parties, free speech, and immigration, I think on balance he is correct on the merits, at least directionally. Now, with that being said, I am not European, so I do hesitate to tell other nations what to do. But this is part of my reflexive American isolationism and if you like the part of my reflexive American isolationism where I say "you know what, Europe can do what they want with their own internal politics" you won't like the part where I say "you know what, Europe can do what they want with their own external politics."
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Re military hospitals, I had meant that I can imagine protests being banned outside some sensitive location in the US, especially if they are held repeatedly, are disturbing to the staff and visitors at a vulnerable moment, and are in contradiction of a court order. This is what happened outside a UK abortion centre, and that Vance is furious about. Obviously the same thing wouldn't happen outside a US abortion centre in the current climate, my point is that an equal infringement of freedoms at a different location not so important to christian fundamentalists would not cause any outrage, so if that's true, it's not at actually freedom that is at issue.
A military hospital was just my stab at an example location where the American public might not like to see repeated protests held.
The Westboro Baptist Church was A Thing for a while- nobody suggested bans on protests at military funerals.
I wondered if you were right and this is the first thing google turned up – protests at military funerals were in fact banned in nine states and twenty others at least considered doing the same. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2006/apr/18/usa.gayrights
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It appears that Scotland is banning silent prayer which is a far cry from violent or even noisy demonstrations.
Christians in America have been concerned about the infringement of religious freedom in the military and even – despite the rightwing/business alliance – in the workplace. If the VA forbid silent prayer inside of their medical centers right-wing evangelicals would be livid (and in fact every so often issues like this crop up in the military and the right wing Christian evangelical/fundamentalist types get Big Mad about it). Now, I do think it's true that righties and Christians, like everyone else, often aren't perfectly principled. But I also don't think that having e.g. in-group bias means you are insincere .
That's a wilful misunderstanding of the law invented by the Telegraph – the most extreme case that might fall under the legislation would be people praying in a window visible from the abortion clinic with the intention of influencing the patients. I don't actually agree with the law but it's clearly been made in order to deal with persistent protesters causing upset to patients, not to criminalise what people do in their own heads.
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