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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 7, 2022

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If polling aggregators are a thing you find interesting, here are links to 538's 2022 Election Forecast page and RealClearPolitics' Election Central 2022 page.

If you're going to be glued to the television/internet tomorrow evening, and want to know what races to watch as early indicators, here's an hour-by-hour breakdown from Decision Desk HQ, and their General Results homepage. The night will begin at 7 PM EST with a trio of key Congressional races in Virginia, and the Governor and Senate statewide races in Georgia. At 7:30, start looking for returns from North Carolina and Ohio.

One of the reasons DDHQ is one of the best locations for US election returns is that their analysis pays particular attention to margins of victory, not just winners and losers, in forecasting outcomes on election night. Sure, a particular county might always vote Republican, but if the margin is R+5 on the night in question, that's very bad news for Republicans if the county was R+15 in 2016. You'll also see a lot of "if this race is called early for the Democrat, that's good news for the D party; but if the call is delayed, that's good news for Rs" or vice versa, depending on the race in question.

If you're going to be glued to the television/internet tomorrow evening,

BWAHAHA nope. I'm going to find a way to enjoy the nice weather and literally not think about it. I'm also pretty confidence it won't have a major impact on my life either way. Besides, I teach a class at the gym and I like my students better.

Not passing judgment on anyone who enjoys it as a spectator sport, with the understanding they have no influence on outcome though.

If you're going to be glued to the television/internet tomorrow evening, and want to know what races to watch as early indicators,

My plan is to turn off TV/devices in the early evening and review the results when I wake up on Wednesday morning. If experience is any guide, though, I'll be refreshing the standard real-time update feeds compulsively until 2 am.