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We could still end up in the AI Fizzle world, even if it isn't the most likely possibility. If AI ends up being "just" another industrial revolution, and not a singularity then society will change quite a bit, but it might still bear a family resemblance to our world.
And for powerful enough ASI that we lose control of, or which is unaligned in some way, I don't see how it would make much of a difference whether we are a totalitarian state or a decentralized federation.
Presumably, the ASI doesn't have qualia. Its terminal goals are its initial prompting. So, let's say that the AI was programmed with the woke consensus of 2020. It could lead to terrifying realities such as:
Safetyism. Humans are denied any agency and forced to live life according to the goals of a 2020-era HR lady.
Leveling. Humans are denied any beauty or enlightenment beyond which the lowest human is capable of.
Racism. "Evil" humans, as defined by whiteness or maleness, are punished as a terminal goal of the AI
To be fair, these are fairly esoteric concerns. We have no idea which path AI will take us on. But, as we are potentially at an inflection point in history, I think it's important that we bend towards liberty. It's more imperative than ever that statism be destroyed to prevent worse case scenarios.
Yes, we could. But just because P(doom) < 1 doesn't mean it's not important. At the risk of engaging in Pascal's mugging, even a 1% chance of short term ASI makes it by far the most important issue we will ever face. Personally, I think the odds are closer to 50%.
I feel like your "woke consensus of 2020" ASI would be a problem regardless of whether our governments bend towards liberty or not. All that matters is whether the creators of the ASI bend towards liberty.
The ASI's goals and the governmental constitution/societal culture seem fairly orthogonal to me under most circumstances. If a lone principled libertarian with a meritocracy fetish creates the first aligned godlike ASI, then that's what we'll get, regardless of whether the rest of America started with a woke consensus of 2020 culture. The same goes for almost any combination.
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