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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 3, 2025

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If I had to make a prediction; if Trump manages to cut this gordian knot, it's going to be because he gets Saudi Arabia (or perhaps a Muslim partnership) to take ownership over at least Gaza. They will get a corridor which is either theirs or granted to them in order to project power and material by land from Saudi Arabia to Gaza.

In what world would Saudi Arabia, or any other country, agree to this? Israel already tried to give Gaza to the Egyptians, and they didn't want it. Gaza is nothing more than a headache for any country with the misfortune of having sovereignty over them. Hell, Saudi Arabia doesn't even have any formal relations with Israel and doesn't recognize them, yet Israel is supposed to grant their military unlimited transit across their territory? Not to mention that Jordan would have to agree to this as well.

The world where Saudi Arabia isn't Egypt and the Arab League has had something like this proposal, known as the Arab Peace Initiative, for nearly two decades which offers totally normalized relations in exchange for the end of the occupation and a Palestinian state and has also been endorsed by Iran and Hezbollah. So, this world which we live in right now.

Is this speculated predicted deal the same as that? No, there are some differences. Is this deal likely? No, it's a prediction based on a difficult conditional.

Saudi Arabia and the Arab League isn't Egypt. One is stable and filthy rich and the other is teetering on collapse. Jordan will do what the US demands and so will Israel if someone who is seen as a rabid Zionist actually forces them to face consequences if they don't.

None of those initiatives offered a clear sovereign to rule over the Palestinian State and ensure that its territory is not used to launch attacks.

That's the missing piece. The (esp Arab) world does not want Israel to be that entity. But they don't want to step up and do it themselves. So all that's left is to periodically mow the grass.

Right, which is why Trump announced the US was going to do it themselves then to pressure the Arabs; do the Arabs want the US to administer it or would they prefer to do it themselves?