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PaperclipPerfector  1d ago (text post)   5191 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 3, 2025

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Tariffs on Mexico delayed for a month- Mexico making concessions.

If Wikipedia is correct about the scale and scope of the Mexican Drug War, sending 10,000 extra troops to the border (which is the only concession announced) is a pretty meaningless concession - there are already 300,000 plus Mexican troops involved in fighting the drug cartels, and Mexico's interest in defeating them is stronger than America's. (If the Mexicans are deliberately tanking said fight because the cartels have bought Sheinbaum, then sending 10,000 extra troops to the border won't change this).

Two obvious possibilities for what went on on the call:

  1. Sheinbaum turned on the flattery, and Trump agreed to delay tariffs for a month with the expectation that he can have another phonecall in a month's time where she announces another trivial concession, he tells his supporters that his tough policy achieved a massive concession, and the process can continue indefinitely to mutual benefit in domestic political terms. (cf the kayfabe row with Colombia)
  2. Sheinbaum successfully pointed out that a total breakdown in relationships between the US and Mexico would hurt his political position fairly directly because the US relies on Mexican co-operation to police the border, and a short term bounce in immigration would make Trump look bad.

Given the size of the market rallies (and in particular the MXN rally) on the announcement, financial markets do not expect tariffs on Mexico to come back in a month's time, and almost certainly don't expect any kind of voluntary arrangement that would materially curtail Mexican exports to the US.

Also possible that the concessions bought enough goodwill for Trump to believe Rubio will obtain more substantial concessions in a months time.

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