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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   3351 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 26, 2025

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Up until Deepseek the conventional wisdom was that the bottleneck of the AI revolution will be Nvidia. So they would command prices and margins. After deepseek it was less certain. Due to the way the human mind works movements arounds probabilities around 0 and 1 - even small movements in probabilities away from 0 and 1 could trigger disproportional reactions. Nvidia will produce a shitload of silicone and sell it. But the reduced computational demands means that there is price points and applications at which ati/intel or some asics could become viable.

I read the other day that China has been obtaining 4090 chips through clandestine means, somehow stealing them from graphics card boards and then returning them so they end up in the supply chain GPU-less. Is it evident exactly what silicon Deepseek is using, or is it a possibility that the underlying silicon is mostly nvidia chips that have been obtained despite export restrictions?

I think it is too complicated. And if done on large enough scale people will notice. And if done that way it will be for Chinese military/Intelligence use.

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