I made a bunch of predictions at the old forum, at least.
At this point it looks like I actually overestimated Russia's drive - I thought they'd reach Kramatorsk, and ceasefire would probably also require more yielding from Ukraine, at this point. Of course there's still two months left.
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Notes -
This could be solved by offering bets. In particular, Insight Prediction has a bunch of liquid markets: https://insightprediction.com/c/5/russia-ukraine
I made a bunch of predictions at the old forum, at least.
At this point it looks like I actually overestimated Russia's drive - I thought they'd reach Kramatorsk, and ceasefire would probably also require more yielding from Ukraine, at this point. Of course there's still two months left.
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