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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   4482 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 30, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

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If our goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is it better to kill 40 million median Americans or 40 million median Ugandians?

On one hand, one American emits 15x more greenhouse gases than one Ugandan. On the other hand, Ugandan TFR is 2x the replacement ratio, so their great-great-grandchildren will emit more than those of the Americans even without taking into account Ugandan economic growth and American decarbonization plans.

The former - nuclear war would reduce greenhouse gas emissions quickly and the ash would have a mild cooling effect.

Neither. By killing 40 million Americans, you would arguably (likely IMO) end up with worse global warming, since that devastating blow to the American economy would delay the invention and adaption of technology that replace fossil fuels and enable carbon capture. Dito for the Angolans.

Would killing 40 million African peasants be noticed by anyone except the peasants themselves? Not to sound rude, but my priors on ‘mass suffering and death in Africa’ is that it’s a page 8 story, and that on a slow news day.

When people say that utilitarians don't consider the second-order consequences of their actions, you know that's an outsider criticism, not a philosophical requirement, right?

More seriously: Ugandan TFR is 2x replacement right now, but a generation ago it was 3x replacement. Angola is still at 2.5x replacement, but they peaked at 3.5x two generations ago and are still falling. Their demographic transitions seem to be well underway already, so "TFR=constant" isn't even a good approximation right now, much less something you can extrapolate out for four more generations to come.

You are right, if Ugandan TFR is decreasing quickly towards replacement rate it makes no sense to try to adjust for it.

The 2022 UN World Population Prospects just came out. Under the medium fertility variant, the population of Uganda is projected to more than triple by the year 2100. The U.S. population is expected to increase by just 15%. More than 100% of the U.S. increase will be due to immigration.

While African fertility has been decreasing, the decrease has been much slower than other countries such as India and Iran where the TFR has come down rapidly. The UN projects that Ugandan TFR will fall to replacement (2.1) by the year 2071.

Just providing some context, not disputing the overall thrust of your comment.

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