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Notes -
Well yeah, 2019 isn't really a discontinuity in the trend line. What's noticeable is that eyeballing that line, a best fit curve with starts and stops would be pretty accurate. It looks like 2019 was one of those starts and stops, and I'd guess the Covington Catholic kids are probably a pretty big reason.
I'm also guessing that a lot of this is white Catholics who'd previously voted republican finally changing their party registration rather than a sudden change in voting behavior. It's a well-documented trend elsewhere that democrats who become republicans usually start voting republican well before changing their registration, and it would be extremely consistent with that idea for change in party registration to have lots of starts and stops based on what's in the news. I'd also guess Buttigiege's talk of taxing churches that oppose LGBT was a factor in 2019, as well- Catholics who already voted republican but called themselves democrats would be more likely to stop identifying with democrats after that.
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