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Notes -
With a single day remaining until the next weekly thread, I thought I would squeeze this in:
Trump Won't Announce Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Via Executive Order, Says Analyst: 'He Would Likely Buy BTC In The Background'
Polymarket is giving 28-30% odds as of 1/12/2025 of Trump implementing the strategic crypto reserve within his first 100 days in office.
I remember a month before the 2024 election , polymarket gave 60% odds of Trump winning. That seemed too high at the time (although in hindsight obviously too low) , but didn't feel that confident either way. But taking the "No" side at 30%-- or a 30% return for the next 100 days--seems like a no-brainer. Trump dithering and nothing happens seems way more likely than only 70%. Trump has a long history, from what I can see, of falling short of expectations and letting donors down. I remember before his first term people were expecting drastic reforms and basically nothing of that sort happened. I would put the odds closer to 2-5% of the reserve than 30%.
from the above article:
The evidence that Trump is suddenly pro-bitcoin still is not that strong. i cannot see him "buying in the background" either. I don't see him taking that sort of initiative.
I don't see this happening either. Bitcoin held in US treasury will continue to be sold despite Trump being in office. Donors, supporters, and pundits will wonder why he isn't doing anything about it, and i'm like were you asleep during his first term? This is what is expected, which is doing nothing.
What if Trump tweets that, "the United States holds $X of bitcoin reserves", but he is just referring to the bitcoin that has been confiscated?
My prediction remains that Trump takes all the existing seizures and orders they be put in a bag with a label that says "strategic reserve" since it fulfills his promise, requires no law and politically costs nothing.
The market seems to be expecting a ton more than this now. Irrationally in my opinion.
I won't claim it's going to be a catalyst for the next crash, but this whole business definitely looks like a "sell the news" event.
In the end it may not matter to anything but narrative since all this talk is dwarfed by the ETFs. Nobody seems to remember when Germany sold the bottom.
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