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PaperclipPerfector  12d ago (text post)   28335 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 6, 2025

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For what it's worth, this is still the vibe, indeed more than ever, and I do not understand what was the change you're implying you have noticed. After o3, the consensus of all top lab researchers seems to be "welp we're having superintelligence in under 5 years".

I guess I'd call it a bifurcation.

I read the material that suggests all the pieces are in place to achieve superintelligence.

But I'm also reading reports that the most recent training runs are seeing diminishing returns. So making the models BIGGER isn't giving the same results.

Which certainly explains why OpenAI hasn't pushed ChatGPT5 out the door, if it can't demonstrate as significant an improvement as 3-4 was.

So improvements and tweaks to existing models are giving us gains in the meantime, it isn't very clear to me where the quantum leap that will enable true AGI/Superintelligence is hiding. Which is more a me issue, I'm certainly not an insider. I'm just seeing two sides, those who think moar compute is good enough, and those who think its going to take some tricky engineering.

And Altman sure isn't telling us what he's seeing. So my question is whether he's playing cards close to the vest to avoid popping the hype bubble or because he really thinks he's going to blow us away with the next product. Possibly blow us away in the most literal meaning of the word.

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