Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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I think the important question is how do you interpret things like the sabotage to various undersea cables in the Baltic, break-ins at Finnish water plants, GPS jamming, bombs on cargo planes, etc? Maybe what we've seen is the extent of Russia's capabilities, relatively minor annoyances or distractions that Russia knows won't cross the line and require retaliation. Or maybe it's the tip of the iceberg, tests of more comprehensive attack systems that Putin plans to one day deploy fully against the West. Does he see himself more as the great crusader who will reclaim Russia's lost glory, or as the vanguard who will be content merely holding the line against the West without giving up too much more?
If Putin eventually wants an escalated war, we'll get one, and if that's the case then it's in the West's interest to keep him fighting in Ukraine where he can spend his country's blood and treasure with minimal risk to the rest of us non-Ukrainians in the meantime. But he does seem to be signaling that he'd accept peace under Trump, suggesting that he wants to withdraw but what he really needs is the cover to maintain face. We'll see soon enough, I guess. But if the war in Ukraine ends, or at least gets downgraded to Russia vs just Ukraine, what does Putin do next? Do we enter together into a new era of peace, or does that just let him redirect his efforts to his next goal? And where will that be?
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