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While I'm not a fan of HR, this characterization is not correct. Why would companies keep HR employees on the payroll at any time if they weren't providing value? What's happening now is companies are expecting not to hire much in the next ~year so they're cutting employees that help hire people -- HR and recruiters.
I suppose if you take a wider view, the HR roles are a way for society to feed people who aren't producing anything, and companies are coerced into participating in the farce by employment laws that require compliance. It's similar to police: they don't produce anything; they're just there to ensure compliance. The difference is that police stop crimes that are actually harmful, while HR stops implicit witchery.
There are many theories of this, but labor hoarding is quite well established empirically. Cultural influences seem non-trivial - managers just don't like firing people. I once replaced someone with about 20 lines of code and kept them around doing the same job (producing a spreadsheet that was formerly read by a cron job, but is now read by no one) until I found an internal transfer for them.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/real-dev.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-040.pdf
https://www.nber.org/papers/w3556
https://pure.eur.nl/en/publications/cultural-influences-on-employee-termination-decisions-firing-the-
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To cover employer asses from potential legal liability created out of thin air by the State.
One could even say that this is the only reason. Think about it, what is it that HR does that doesn't ultimately stem from some legal obligation? Even fucking conflict resolution could just be handled by private society but has to be there because otherwise you get sued for "fostering a hostile work environment".
It's made up sinecures all the way down.
This article takes this thesis and tries to talk about the gender dynamics behind it:
https://www.zippia.com/human-resources-manager-jobs/demographics/
I imagine it's harder to get this kind of scheme to work in private industry, but I don't see a reason why it wouldn't be at least a minor component. In my own experience, most HR folks I've talked to were women who were also heavily into a certain flavor of politics. I wouldn't put it above them to invent work, then use that to argue for increasing headcount and hiring more comradettes. But I don't think this is a large force. More like upper single digits of % perhaps?
More like near-triple digits. Arguing for increasing one's subordinates is a standard managment behavior, as documented in the classic "Parkinson's Law or the Pursuit of Progress"
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