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Notes -
I'm... less sensitive to this. I think these things almost never happen. Especially because very few occupations really take ten years to ramp up production unless there are significant restrictions in place (the occupation that comes closest in terms of number of years would be doctors, but when there are problems there, the absolute most likely explanation is supply restrictions). For the most part, we should probably just let the price system operate.
As mentioned in the linked comment, it is inherently a political decision as to whether the supply curve should be purely the domestic one or the world one. This is not necessarily an easy choice. You ask Bryan Caplan and he'll take gainz from trade every time; you ask the unions, and they'll take domestic salaries every time. But I think that we should just be honest that that is the political decision to be made, not hiding a political decision inside what would inevitably be a political determination of whether there is a "shortage".
I sort of reject the idea that you can accomplish this by government fiat. Supply curves slope upwards. If the "current price" to hire a domestic employee is $X, but the gov't only allows you to hire a foreign employee for $X+Y, then just look back to the domestic supply curve. You could hire more domestic employees for $X+Y, which would bring the "equilibrium price" of hiring domestic employees up to $X+Y. Which, first, if the price mechanism is actually operating domestically, you don't actually want to do, because the market has already cleared. Second, if our plan is to always make it more expensive to hire foreign workers, it in turn requires the government to bring up the cost of hiring a foreign worker to $X+Y+Z. Rinse and repeat. Like, mayyyyyyybe someone could define a sense of "if the (I don't know) "medium run" supply curve has elasticity below some threshold, then..." but good luck estimating it or having a usable definition of "medium run" to use for your estimation.
I think this would be equivalent to just saying that we're going to choose the world supply curve... but with a tariff. It would essentially require adopting the meaning of "shortage" to be "with respect to the world supply curve". Of course, the tariff would still cause a ""shortage"" (not to be confused with "shortage") with respect to the world market clearing equilibrium that would be obtained without the tariff.
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