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Culture War Roundup for the week of December 23, 2024

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What makes you think US TFR would've stayed high? Entirely possible a no-mass migration USA has a much, much smaller population, is majority minority(you know heritage americans are like forty percent black, right? Now add in the preexisting hispanics and natives in conquered territories), and has vast utterly undeveloped hinterlands.

TFR among Americans stayed high with mass migration because there was vast cheap land and no birth control. TFR among Americans remained high in areas of the country which didn't have big waves of immigration ( or at least that particular wave going to other parts at the same time). Pre-birth control and women's "liberation," I see no good reason to think mass migration had much of an effect on TFR of heritage Americans, let alone a significantly positive one. The US was regularly getting >30% population growth every 10 years before mass immigration (even removing immigrants), e.g., in the 1790-1820, the total number of new immigrants (not counting people who left), averaged around an estimated 180k total over 30 years while the total US population increased by over 5.5M, a gain of >245%.

Yes, it's entirely possible the US would have a lower population without the waves of immigrants in the 19th century. Maybe we'd have a population of only 200,000,000, still larger than the population the US had during WW2, and 1950, 1960, and 1970 when the US was hardly an undeveloped backwater.