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First off, Russia is currently eating Europe's largest military land power for lunch. When they finish digesting, they will be bigger and stronger than they are now, both by virtue of having acquired a larger military and by virtue of gaining invaluable combat experience, including against Europe's most modern weapons systems. (This isn't a fringe view! This is the US/NATO military assessment of the situation!) Meanwhile, Europe (which nearly ran out of munitions in 2011 fighting a minor war of choice against Libya and had to be bailed out by the United States) is militarily weaker now than it was before the conflict, in no small part due to having donated large numbers of its weapons systems to Ukraine.
Secondly - if the US pulls out of NATO/Europe, it should not be taken for granted that "Europe" will act as a collective. That's the risk, I think - not Russia deciding it wants to fight a unified Europe, but rather Russia engaging in coercive diplomacy against e.g. Estonia and Germany, France and Spain deciding they don't care.
If Europe is China's trading partner, and the US and China go at it, the US may close shipping lanes to China, either by a blockade or just incidentally through e.g. mining Chinese waters. (India may try this as well in a conflict, but I think they have less capability to do so). The reverse is unlikely - China probably wouldn't try to threaten Atlantic shipping. The likely threat, I think, isn't Europe getting drawn into a war so much as their chief trading partner no longer being able to trade.
Over the long run of state relations, there is always the threat of nation-states becoming hostile to each other if they do not share interests. Personally, I think that American planners recognize a unified Europe (and China) as the only likely competitors to their dominance over the long course of history. If Europe begins to act in a unified fashion, we should expect the United States to react accordingly. (This will be by UK-style "offshore balancing" rather than "declaring war on the continent.") In fact, I would argue that the United States has already acted in this fashion.
Does Europe [broadly] have a normal human pride reaction? For instance, in 2014, Russia threatened to cut off gas supplies to Europe. Instead of remilitarizing, Germany...doubled down on energy deals with Russia. (This was not in alignment with US interests or desires at all, in case you're under the idea that Germany is in lockstep with the States.)
I agree there is - or was - a perceived lack of need, prior to 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea. And, a mere 9 years later, Germany has finally hit their NATO 2% defense spending target. Look, I'm not saying it's impossible for Europe to reindustrialize and remilitarize in the long run. But I am saying that they haven't demonstrated the ability to do so. I think it's reasonable to assume that it will be a difficult and expensive task.
I don't think it's necessarily wise or helpful to reduce complex geopolitics to simplistic roles like "friend" "military dictator" "business partner" etc. This is particularly true when US policies are not towards Europe as a whole (although I've spoken reductively at this level) but are towards each of the separate European states, and its relations with states such as England are different to its relations with states such as France or Germany. In fact, I think a lot of the US relationship with Europe after World War Two is best explained by understanding England's strategy and foreign policy. England has, with some degree of success, managed to get the United States to embrace England's goals as its own - this is most obvious when it comes to things like "entering World Wars on England's side" and somewhat more subtle when it comes to the goals of e.g. NATO. Which were - as per the words of its first Secretary General, an Englishman - “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” Does that make the US a military dictator? Friend? Business partner? Maybe a bit of all three. Maybe it depends a bit on where and when you sit.
Over the very long course of history, the Russian empire has the ability to be a competitor for the United States. It happens to be an incompetent corrupt oligarchy which doesn’t care about economic growth. But there are possible-if-not-plausible futures where a Russian empire is a superpower again.
I don't doubt Russia's ability to be a competitor or a superpower (indeed despite its problems it is punching above its nominal GDP as a competitor!), but I think that it is more likely to be a Eurasian land power. The United States' core strategic interests are likely going to be protected as long as it maintains dominance over the seas, and I think a unified Europe or China are both much more likely to cause problems in that area.
Russia was a global superpower in 1990. While it has a natural tendency towards land power in Eurasia, it’d be foolish for strategic planners to disregard the possibility of substantial Russian global power projection. Indeed, is suspect the biggest reason for Russia’s lack of global power projection today is fiscal, rather than lack of ambition.
Fair enough - I don't disagree here. I'd suggest that even in 1990, Russia's power was more "Eurasian land power" and less "maritime rival" although they were building out their naval capability tremendously. Certainly if fiscal restraints were removed (and some technical knowledge rebuilt - Russia has had a dearth of shipbuilding expertise since the fall of the USSR, as I understand it) I could see them becoming a maritime power. But I suspect for the foreseeable future their naval power will remain limited. Perhaps this flatters my biases, as I'd prefer to believe that the US and Russia throwing down in Eastern Europe is a solvable problem rather than a cycle that's doomed to repeat due to mutually clashing core strategic interests.
I've been surprised before, though (and I generally tend to think Russia is in a better position than people are willing to give it credit for, so maybe this is not a good departure from form for me?) so maybe I'll be wrong again!
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