Let's chat about the National Football League. This week's schedule (all times Eastern):
Thu 2024-12-12 8:15PM Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Sun 2024-12-15 1:00PM Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints
Sun 2024-12-15 4:25PM Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Sun 2024-12-15 4:25PM Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Sun 2024-12-15 4:25PM New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Sun 2024-12-15 4:25PM Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Sun 2024-12-15 4:25PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Sun 2024-12-15 8:20PM Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Mon 2024-12-16 8:00PM Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Mon 2024-12-16 8:30PM Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
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Notes -
Week 15 thread is live: https://www.themotte.org/post/1300/nfl-weekly-thread-week-16
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Eagles had a ho-hum trap game against Carolina. This is either the beginning of the end, or it is just a classic trap game where the team didn't game plan for the Panthers, tired from the Ravens and looking ahead to the Steelers. The Eagles won but didn't cover, and came perilously close to losing. The pass game looked disjointed, and we're getting our annual dose of angry AJ Brown, the undermanned pass rush couldn't get home, the pass defense looked the worst it has all year.
Looking ahead to the Steelers, if you're a betting man I'd take the Steelers at current odds. I think the Eagles are more likely to win, but I'd sooner take the moneyline on the Steelers, I don't think the Eagles win 7/10 times. I don't think anybody beats this Steelers team 7/10 times.
Saquon's MVP odds took a step forward, he had a mid game against the Panthers, but Josh Allen lost to the Rams, and despite a brilliant hero performance from Allen, that defeat probably costs the Bills the 1-seed. I still hope Allen wins MVP, but if it's not him it should be Saquon. The other odds leaders don't deserve it as much, it should be a two horse race.
I find it hard to believe that the Steelers will win this game. In the past I talked about defensive strategy and how to contain Barkley, but I made the mistake of analyzing this game the way a normal person would analyze it. The Steelers had their trap game against Cleveland a few weeks ago, and it had all the classic trap storylines: Short week, divisional opponent, road game, playing a team that's so bad that beating their principle rival at home is akin to winning the Super Bowl, dreaded Thursday game, coming off a hard-fought victory against your principle rival and main competitor for the division title (I'm not including the weather because it wasn't bad until the second half, and the Steelers outplayed the Browns then anyway). This isn't so much a trap game as it is a game where the benefits of winning don't necessarily outweigh the costs of losing.
First, we have to talk curse. The Steelers haven't won in Philadelphia since October 24, 1965, when they beat the Eagles 20–14 at Franklin Field. It was one of two Steelers victories that season. TV announcers like to point out that the Steelers have only had three coaches since 1969; what they don't tell you is that they were firing coaches all the time before that. The coach in 1965 was some guy named Mike Nixon, who was only head coach for a single 2–12 season. The quarterback for the Steelers was Bill Nelson, who passed for 79 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. The whole team had a whopping 139 yards of total offense, and won thanks to two defensive touchdowns. The Steelers were somehow 8 point favorites in this game despite being 0–5 leading into it, though Philly wasn't much better at 1–4. The Steelers would begin their losing streak in Philly the following two seasons, but that was when they were perennially terrible and expected to lose. In 1969 they hired Chuck Noll, drafted Joe Greene, and commenced the only true rebuild in franchise history.
It was that 1969 season when the curse began. The Steelers were getting pasted, and rookie Joe Greene was pissed that he was being held all game and not getting flags. In his frustration, he grabbed the ball from the center before it was snapped and threw it into the stands. In the ensuing decade the team would win four championships and go from Same Old Steelers to Super Steelers. But the cost of this was that they wouldn't win in Philly again. To be clear, this isn't some universally accepted curse, since I just made it up two days ago, but I like the idea that everything is controlled by curses and football gods so I have quite the repertoire of phony curses that I've invented to explain nearly every misfortune in the sports world. The idea of a curse is bolstered, though, by the teams that actually lost in Philadelphia. When I first heard about this losing streak, I assumed that maybe it was just luck; that they happened to be scheduled in Philly during seasons when the team was having an off year. Not so.
The Steelers last played there in 2022, when they were starting Kenny Pickett and the Eagles were Super Bowl contenders, so that one makes sense. But others don't. In 2016 they suffered the biggest loss of Tomlin's career (31 points) in a season in which they made the AFC Championship game. In 2008 they won the Super Bowl but lost 15–6 while Ben got sacked nine times. The 1991 and 1970 teams that lost there weren't good, but the 1979 team also lost despite winning the Super Bowl. Since the Steelers won their first championship, 2 mediocre teams have lost there, 2 were AFC Championship game participants, and 2 were Super Bowl winners. At his point I'm almost hoping they lose because it means a deep playoff run.
More seriously, you have to look at the Steelers' situation and consider what's at stake. They have a two game lead over the Ravens for the division, and a win in Baltimore next week will likely clinch it. They probably aren't getting the bye, regardless of what happens. George Pickens is questionable with a hamstring injury, and it's hard to see them scoring enough points against the league's best defense without him. Why rush him back when it's more important that he play against the Ravens? Let Russ fling the ball around to Scotty Miller and MyCole Pruitt and see what happens. Tell Joey Porter Jr. to give AJ Brown the Ike Taylor cushion so he gets used to covering guys without tackling them. Run shit from the back of the playbook just to show other teams that you're willing to run it so they can waste time preparing for it. If they go balls out they might lose anyway and go into Baltimore on a short week tired and banged up (followed by Kansas City on an even shorter week). The Eagles, meanwhile, are looking for a bounce back after almost losing to the lowly Panthers, and beating the Steelers would be a huge statement that they're for real. They've already got the division more or less wrapped up and they have a legitimate shot at the one seed, so this is a game to win. The rest of their season isn't difficult. Eagles should win this one easily.
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After looking like the worst team in the league the first half of the season, the Panthers have been sneakily competent so far in the back half. Their last three games have been against division leaders, and they lost all three by one score (including one in overtime). They may be a trap game but have been playing their best ball of the season lately. Bryce Young looks like a different player after his benching, and Canales deserves a lot of credit not only for that, but also for getting a full buy-in from the team. The Panthers are playing hard, and while they've come up short in these last few games and moral victories aren't "real" ones, it is absolutely encouraging for Panthers fans that they've been really striving for these games. It can be easy for a team like this to give up on the season - just look at the Giants.
As for MVP, even with the loss it feels to me like it's Allen's to lose at this point. Lamar will struggle to win the division at this point, which would make his candidacy non-viable. Saquon has been absolutely incredible, but I don't think the narrative for him has been that he is the only guy carrying the Eagles, the way Adrian Peterson was the entire offense for the Vikings back when he won. I think the Eagle's embarrassment of riches across the offense will hurt his candidacy. Meanwhile, Allen's supporting skill position cast on the Bills has been below-average, with one of the worst WR rooms in the league prior to the addition of Amari Cooper at the deadline (who has not done much as a Bill, either) - their most-played WR is former Eagles castoff Mack Hollins. James Cook has been good, but not to the point of overcoming their receiving shortcomings. And everyone watched Allen attempt to drag that team kicking and screaming to a victory Sunday night all by his lonesome, which will play well in the minds of the voters even though he couldn't quite manage it in the end.
That's exactly what makes them a trap game.
Allen absolutely should win, but if he doesn't I'll be pissed if it doesn't go to Saquon.
In my mind, a player should not win multiple MVPs unless he is the best beyond a reasonable doubt. Not just a tie breaker, a higher standard for previous winners. So applying a higher standard, Lamar and Mahomes are out. That leaves Goff, Hurts, Darnold, Love in the running. Hurts and Love don't have the stats. Goff and Darnold have had great years by the stats, but lack the je ne sais quoi to carry an MVP. I do think Watt on the Steelers should be getting more MVP love, he's the heart of that team.
Allen is the clear favorite, and he deserves it. By any standard, he deserves it more than Saquon. But Saquon is the clear second place and I don't think it's particularly close.
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KC has been so sloppy this season, it's a miracle they're 12-1.
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