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PaperclipPerfector  13d ago (text post)   985 thread views

Transnational Thursday for December 5, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Meanwhile I'm still running my little intelligence agency, and we keep putting out weekly minutes (of which stuff like the above is my draft for Thursday). Today I was very frustrated because someone wants to give us a grant but their ops is fucked up and so we might have to pay $5k in overhead basically just because. On the plus side, my cofounder has been doing very fast wargames for the items in this list and these have generally been very enlightening, because they make it much easier to think through what the "obvious steps" are in catastrophes like that in a way that more abstract thinking doesn't do it for me.

Yesterday I posted a blogpost on the "grain of truth problem", where you can't really update well if you observe something which you previously thought had probability ~0—many of the big picture frameworks people use to make sense of AI have fail and imho will continue to fail because they are too rigid. I put it on twitter, but it failed to reach anybody with real power.

/end of rant.

posted a blogpost

Maybe it is just me but that font is unusable for prose for me. Maybe it would work for code.

also "proffessional life" and "problme"

Also, for bold predictions about new unprecedented field I would expect basically all detailed predictions to fail. And I would not treat that as giving much info.

(posted this nitpick as you complained about no reach and maybe this has some sort of influence on this, or maybe no - let me know if that was unwanted)

Thanks, typos fixed

Also changed the font to something which might be a bit better

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