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PaperclipPerfector  20d ago (text post)   30973 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 2, 2024

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Meh. The blues are pretty much guaranteed to lose a kinetic tribal conflict, so it's far from a worst case scenario.

The blues are pretty much guaranteed to lose a kinetic tribal conflict

I'd say this is a pretty strong assertion, of the sort that should really have some evidence provided to back it. For one, why don't you think the blues will be able to retain control over "kinetic" government institutions?

I mean, the Texas border standoff shows that federal control of kinetic institutions is far from unlimited(theoretically both sides were supposed to take orders from Joe Biden- in practice, neither of them did), and there’s simply very few blues in kinetic positions. There’s a lengthy history of federal law enforcement- much much more willing to crack skulls than the actual army- not being willing to get into it with antigovernment extremists.

From a geographic perspective, as well, maintaining control over enough kinetic institutions to win a civil war is a far taller order for blues than reds. The navy is the most liberal branch of the armed forces and it’s also the least useful for this. To win, blues need to maintain a continuous line of supply over hostile terrain to large inland cities that can serve as a base for controlling the hinterlands well enough to launch offensives against red states- if they fail at this very infantry intensive task, then they don’t have a victory condition. Without Denver it’s basically impossible for the blues to reconquer the heartland.

Unlike a lot of people here on both sides (apparently), and despite my ostensible respect for violence as a necessary component of politics, I am not fond of war.

It would be better for everyone involved if that could be avoided.

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