site banner
PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   974 thread views

Transnational Thursday for November 28, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

3
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Does anybody have a good background on what is happening in South Korea? Why did the president there decide to declare martial law? What is the problem between him and the parliament? Is it related to the North or is the president using the North as in the US they are using Russia - as a cheap way to smear internal political opponents? Would appreciate some informed insight into it.

In another interesting development in a week with a number of interesting developments, the Syrian civil war has kicked back up a bit with a surprise rebel offensive that has taken Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities last meaningfully contested in 2016. What has been almost as surprising as the offensive itself has been the speed and success of the advance.

The Syrian Civil War has more or less been frozen for the last few years, but with Assad only controlling around 70% of the country. However, the freeze not only included the American-backed counter-ISIS presence in the far east, but the Turkish-backed anti-Assad elements in the far north. The later Turkish-backed elements are what have made the recent offensive.

What starts to introduce some intrigue is the timing / possible reasoning for the timing. Specifically, the recent (still tentative) ceasefire close to of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which depending on whose reported numbers you believe killed and/or wounded thousands of Hezbollah members, including much of Hezbollah's senior leaders.

This matters because those senior leaders and forces were key deciders in Hezbollah's support for Assad in the Syrian Civil War. In 2017 a hezbollah commander claimed to have 10,000 Hezbollah fighters in Syria, and while that number was almost certainly theatrical propaganda it does illustrate the point of a substantial Hezbollah presence and interest. This, in turn, was an extension of Hezbollah's role as an Iranian ally/proxy force, being used to supplement fellow Iranian ally Assad by providing desperately needed manpower. However, the recent Hezbollah-Israel conflict has been extremely disruptive, and Hezbollah is in a period of recovery / reorganization.

What also matters as context is why Aleppo fell / was retaken by the Assad government in 2016, which was the role of heavy Russian air support. If you remember the 2015 Russian SU-25 shootdown by Turkey, that was a result of the Russian aircraft violating Turkish airspace in the general Aleppo air area. Those bombings were heavy, even decisive, but also highly exposed to Turkish interception if Turkey wanted to. It didn't at the time... but at the time, Russia wasn't heavily committed to the war in Ukraine, nor had it been more or less caught in a foreign sabotage campaign effort which may or may not be attempts to shape upcoming Ukraine negotiations by way of some coercive leverage.

Of course, coercive leverage can exist in multiple domains, and multiple forms. Which gets us to where we are now, and the interesting overlap of foreign interests and angles.

Just from a window of opportunity angle, the Aleppo offensive can be taking advantage of the weakening of two of Assad's most relevant allies- the Ukraine-committed Russian airforce (which has so far done some pro-forma bombings in Aleppo), and the Israel-rattled Hezbollah (which had some of its Syria-based logistics struck just in the last few days- nominally to prevent the rearming within Hezbollah, but coincidentally denying their repurposing to Assad). But from a 'why would its backers want to do so now' perspective, Aleppo may also be a Turkish initiative timed / intended to shape/counter the Russian pressure campaign in Europe, both as a warning not to do the same in Turkey, and a 'gentle' reminder of Turkish interests and influence in the Ukraine resolution.

But of course, that later rational would have applied whether Aleppo changed hands or not... but now that it has largely fallen, and probably succeeded far more than anyone was expected, it brings up the question of how much further the Turkish-backed rebels think they can / should push in this previously unapparent window of opportunity.

Does this mean a re-opening of the Syrian civil war, if local actors see Assad is newly vulnerable without the support of the Ukraine-stretched Russia and the disruption of the Israel-distracted Iranian axis of resistance? Probably not. An offensive started without expectations of huge gains isn't likely to have prepared the resources for such a follow-through, and by the time they are martialed that will also be time for the Syrians and Russians and Iranians to prioritize this problem and reach a new stalemate.

But it is considerably more likely than it was a week ago.

In the last hour there’s been reports of heavy gunfire in Damascus near the armed forces headquarters. There are rumors of an ongoing military coup d’etat.

Asad did reportedly fly to Moscow earlier this week, which is always an opportunity for a palace coup when things get bad.

Just as a general awareness point for Trump-administration Ukraine Policy-

President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg to be special envoy to Ukraine and Russia in his second administration.

Keith Kellogg is one of the authors of the American First Institute white paper that was called 'Trump's peace plan' during the election. This is the one that was regularly (mis)reported as Trump was going to force Ukraine to agree to Russian terms by withholding aid.

What the Kellogg proposal says on page 16, emphasis mine, is-

America First is not isolationist, nor is it a call to retreat America from engagement in the world. An America First approach to national security is, however, characteristically distinct from a foreign policy establishment that often keeps the United States mired in endless wars to the detriment of the country by putting idealistic principles ahead of the interests of the American people. There is a pathway forward in Ukraine in which America can keep its own interests prioritized while also playing a role in bringing the largest war in Europe since World War II to an end. That role must be through decisive, America First leadership where bold diplomacy paves the way to an end-state. What we should not continue to do is to send arms to a stalemate that Ukraine will eventually find difficult to win. This should start with a formal U.S. policy to bring the war to a conclusion.

Specifically, it would mean a formal U.S. policy to seek a cease-fire and negotiated settlement of the Ukraine conflict. The United States would continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defenses to ensure Russia will make no further advances and will not attack again after a cease-fire or peace agreement. Future American military aid, however, will require Ukraine to participate in peace talks with Russia.

To convince Putin to join peace talks, President Biden and other NATO leaders should offer to put off NATO membership for Ukraine for an extended period in exchange for a comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees. In their April 2023 Foreign Affairs article, Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan proposed that in exchange for abiding by a cease-fire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this would require a future diplomatic breakthrough which probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the United States and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine. We also call for placing levies on Russian energy sales to pay for Ukrainian reconstruction.

By enabling Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength while also communicating to Russia the consequences if it fails to abide by future peace talk conditions, the United States could implement a negotiated end-state with terms aligned with U.S. and Ukrainian interests. Part of this negotiated end-state should include provisions in which we establish a long-term security architecture for Ukraine’s defense that focuses on bilateral security defense. Including this in a Russia-Ukraine peace deal offers a path toward long-term peace in the region and a means of preventing future hostilities between the two nations.

Regrettably, we see no prospect that the Biden Administration will do anything to end the Ukraine War and may implement policies to make the conflict worse. Nevertheless, the above are a few creative ideas for an America First approach to end the war and allow Ukraine to rebuild. President Donald Trump also has a strategy to end the war that he has not fully revealed. We are hopeful there will be a new president in January 2025 to implement these American First ideas to end this devastating conflict.

The Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people will have trouble accepting a negotiated peace that does not give them back all of their territory or, at least for now, hold Russia responsible for the carnage it inflicted on Ukraine. Their supporters will also. But as Donald Trump said at the CNN town hall in 2023, “I want everyone to stop dying.” That’s our view, too. It is a good first step.

This isn't new news, so not much else to say that hasn't been said before- the proposal doesn't meet stated Russian conditions or pre-war demands, peace is hard, and all that. This isn't to challenge anyone's opinion on the merits of even feasibility of the Trump peace plan.

What hasn't been said as much is more about Kellogg himself.

From his wiki-, Kellogg was a former national security adviser in the previous Trump administration, and is and retired lieutenant general in the US military. His military service included Vietnam War service with the 101st Airborne Division, and Gulf War with the 82nd Airborne, which is to say he was in some of the more prestigious parts of the US expeditionary military. His wiki also says he was in the Pentagon on 9-11, and after retiring was involved in the immediate post-occupation Iraq.

This is not, in other words, a Russophile or anti-military dissident of the national security complex, but a literal career Cold War veteran, albeit one who spent more of his career in Asia and the Middle East than Europe or NATO. People expecting Trump's Ukraine policy to be a repudiation of the American military-industrial complex and Pentagon elite are going to be counting on someone who was a Pentagon elite from the Cold War military-industrial complex.

What is also interesting, from a slightly more culture-war perspective, are two points of exposure as he's entering major political prominence:

Personal life Kellogg is the second oldest of four children. His older brother, Mike Kellogg, is a former Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge. His sister, Kathy, is a former actress who is now a clinical psychologist and his younger brother, Jeff, is a former Long Beach city councilman, served as President of the Long Beach Community College District Board of Trustees, and now currently works for the California Community Colleges system.

Which is to say- his family has somewhat significant- and still relevant- ties to the California political ecosystem, which for those less familiar is extremely Democratic.

Further, Kellogg was a witness in the White House during the events of Jan 6, even testifying to the Congressional select committee afterwards.

During the 2021 United States Capitol attack Kellogg defended Pence's decision not to leave the Capitol. While the Secret Service was attempting to get Pence to ride to a safer place, Pence insisted on staying. Kellogg reportedly told Anthony Ornato, former Secret Service and at the time White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, why Pence would not be evacuated, “You can’t do that, Tony. Leave him where he’s at. He’s got a job to do. I know you guys too well. You’ll fly him to Alaska if you have a chance. Don’t do it.” Kellogg made it clear that Pence would stay, even if he needed to remain all night."[27] Kellogg is viewed as a "key witness" in the United States House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack because he was with Trump in the White House as the attack occurred. Kellogg testified under oath to the committee in December 2021,[28] telling them that the president's staff encouraged the president to take immediate action to quell the unrest, but that he refused.[29]

I make no claims on objectivity how the article has been edited, though I'll be interested if it hasn't changed significantly in the months to come.

Instead, the point I'd make is that whatever Kellogg testified before, it doesn't seem to have ruined his standing with Trump... but as the Trump administration enters the point where personnel meet politics (and eat political heat), Kellogg is not obviously unassailable. Whether pressure on or via his family in California, or a reinterpretation of Jan 6 for political hay (or just to disrupt), there are lines of attack that could be used to make his attempts to deliver a Ukraine policy more difficult.

Or at least, more difficult than it already is. We shall see.

Some items I'm tracking this week:

Austria didn't pay for Russian gas, as a remedy for an arbitration award. This ends Austria's 50 year dependence on Russian gas, mid-winter.

Anti-NATO nationalist won the first round of Romanian presidential election. Calin Georgescu, who has praised Putin's regime and blamed the military-industrial complex for the war in Ukraine, secured over 22.9% of the vote, surpassing pro-western candidates Lasconi and Ciolacu.

Israel <> Hezbollah ceasefire

As a case study for negative impacts of technology, apparently the introduction of Facebook groups allowed larger-scale cooperation in Myanmar to a much larger extant than before, and contributed/enabled/made possible the Rohinya genocide.

Aljazeera looked at whether aid workers are being tagetted, given that relatively many (281 in 2024) were killed this year, articularly in Gaza. This could be important, because killing aid workers potentially makes catastrophes much worse.

Further protests in Pakistan about releasing Imran Khan

His wives kept dying mysteriously. His secret poison: Insulin

William Dale Archerd was a charming sociopath who married frequently, drank highballs, and despised 9-to-5 employment. He was a natural salesman who married seven women from 1930 to 1965, sometimes not bothering to divorce the previous one. Archerd was finally arrested in 1967 for a series of murders carried out using insulin injections to mimic fatal illnesses.

Israel and Lebanon instituted a ceasefire, which was then broken. However, Lebanese are returning to their abandoned homes

Per Biden's announcement of the ceasefire, it is between the governments of Lebanon and Israel, and their respective security forces. It doesn't seem to bind Hezbollah?. Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the State Security Forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again. Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt.

Food conditions continue to worsen in Gaza, in part because Israel has been blocking aid

The US and Japan are High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on Japan's Nansei islands to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, as reported by Voice of America.

Trump team weighs direct talks with Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, in his final meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month in Peru, Biden asked for Beijing to use its leverage to reel in North Korea.

Documents declassified by the US reveal a list of assassination targets authorized/ordered by Putin

North Korea reveals uranium enrichment facility for the first time. DHL cargo plane crashed just outside the Vilnius airport, killing the Spanish pilot and injuring the three other crew members. Lithuania cannot rule out terrorism.

If Trump introduces tariffs against other nations, inflation in the US would go up, and other countries would likely retaliate.

Bird flu found in sample of California raw unpasteurized milk sold to the public. group of access leaked api access keys to OpenAI's Sora model in protest to considering themselves "free PR"

I'm surprised you didn't raise the Russian-captained Chinese-flagged ship that dragged it's anchor for 100 miles in the Baltic Sea, cutting the Baltic Sea undersea cable between German and Finland and Sweden and Lithuania.

The ship is currently surrounded by NATO vessels, with various European countries raising the rather pertinant point of sabotage. For which there a number of interesting things to say- this is neither the first case of probable Russian sabotage in Europe in recent years, but the timing and the nature are interesting in the context of the recent Ukraine posturing- but it's also interesting on the question of Chinese involvement, if any.

Especially given the Russian ruble tumble, which appears to be a foreign exchange issue given that they banned foreign currency purchases for the rest of the year, which itself followed a systemic Chinese premium charge of Rubles-for-Yuan from this summer

As a case study for negative impacts of technology, apparently the introduction of Facebook groups allowed larger-scale cooperation in Myanmar to a much larger extant than before, and contributed/enabled/made possible the Rohinya genocide.

This isn't really news, I remember Facebook being blamed for enabling the Rohingya genocide several years ago.

This isn't really news

Sure. It was news to me though.

Wouldn't any communication platform work the same way? I mean, you can coordinate on Twitter or good old webforum or even call-in BBS for that matter (yes, I am old enough to have used one). What's so special in Facebook? Yes, maybe this particular group used Facebook. But they could have used any other means with the same result.

Wouldn't any communication platform work the same way?

Any communication platform that's already widely used, has easy to find groups, allows groups of massive size and keeps those groups mostly out of the sight of unwanted people. The list of suitable platforms isn't huge once you account for those.

has easy to find groups

keeps those groups mostly out of the sight of unwanted people

Aren't those two contradictory? If it's easy to find (and, I assume, participate, otherwise what's the point in finding them?) then "unwanted people" could easily pretend to be wanted people and find and participate too?

For the rest of it I don't see any limiting factors. Web forum can do any of these and more very easily, and I've been using web forums over 2 decades ago.

Aren't those two contradictory? If it's easy to find (and, I assume, participate, otherwise what's the point in finding them?) then "unwanted people" could easily pretend to be wanted people and find and participate too?

Not at all. It's enough that the contents of the group not be shown to people who aren't members even if the name of the group is obvious to people who are aware of the terminology / slang.

This is unlikely to work in English but can work much better in other languages when the censor-happy employees (usually not speakers of said language) don't even know what to look for (and having the group be "closed" prevents them from accidentally seeing the messages that use more straightforward language / imagery).

The thing about web forums is that nobody uses those outside nerds / people with some specialty interest while, well, pretty much everyone is on social media. This makes it super easy to both join such group as well as recommend it to people you know (and thus gather critical mass).

It's enough that the contents of the group not be shown to people who aren't members even if the name of the group is obvious to people who are aware of the terminology / slang.

Yes, about all forum software I know about supports this option. Private mailing lists of course predate this by another couple of decades.

In fact, Facebook is about the worst platform for this - if you want to coordinate a genocide, on FB it's enough to have one snitch in the group who would alert the moderators and your group is gone. If you do it on a forum, and the admins of the forum either friendly to your cause or neutral, you'd have to resort to heavy artillery like pressuring their provider or cloudflare or similar providers and you'd have to have much more proof, and likely by the time you pull it off their deed will be done. And even if you succeed they'd just find a more sympathetic provider - see the story of kiwifarms, for example.

The thing about web forums is that nobody uses those outside nerds / people with some specialty interest while, well, pretty much everyone is on social media

That may be true today, because FB is easier, but before FB existed a ton of non-nerd people used forums. If FB becomes less convenient, they can move back. Using forums is not hard at all, it's just a bit less convenient, but if you're planning a secret genocide, you can tolerate a little inconvenience as a price of not being discovered and executed, I think.

What's so special about facebook is that it was the first to offer this at scale in that country, in a way accessible to wide swathes of the population.

That country didn't have access to the web before? Because web forums have been offering that - basically at any scale a country with population less than the US, making 100M+ member forum probably would require some work - since forever.

The real reason is Facebook was being blamed by democrats for the 2016 election loss, so they stuck them with every accusation they could find.

I don't think it's about 2016 specifically or only. Any valuable resource that is not under the control of The Party must be either brought under control or destroyed. It doesn't matter if it's being used by The Enemy currently or not, and what for - anything that is not under control is a threat, and must be dealt with. That of course is true for Facebook too. One of the basic tenets of socialism is centralized control (for the good of the masses, of course!) and in modern informational society, obviously, this means control over the flows of information.

I don't know why Facebook specifically; maybe it was the zero-rate-with-app-garden thing they were also doing in India around the same time.

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats