Hey gang haven't been crossposting my stuff here as much recently, let me know if you'd like me do that more....
But I thought you guys would be interested in my latest mega-article project. (this one is literally book length)
For those of you that like "The Anarchonomicon Real Banned Books List"
I present "The Warlord's Reading List"
The idea is that its a curriculum for perspective warlord, revolutionaries, Militia Leaders, self defense forces, independent espionage agents, arms traffickers... All the interesting people, with the goal that heaven forbid chaos come to your country there is a pre-curated body of knowledge (with links) that you can quickly and efficiently develop a deep familiarity if not expertise through self directed study.
This this started as just a short list for myself, and then It slowly grew into its current 150+ entry, 22 category, 30,000 word, book length survey of the state of modern warfare complete with oppinions minireviews, and catgirls.
If you're interested in the theory of Marxist Guerilla warfare, Crypto-currency money laundering, special weapons and tacitcs, precision marksmanship and sniper warfare, nuclear weapons survival, effective leadership, operational art and the formation of general staffs, high and low tech logistics, prison economics, digital opsec, high speed mounted warfare, and forming your own blackmail networks... Reconsider you life priorities... But also check out my new booklist!
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Yes, which means I gave "NOT a civil war" MORE than 50%, which given there were mutliple assassniation attempts on the lead candidate one of which came an inch from killing him, that sounds right or even conservative .
In reply to the "then" please read the introduction to my immediate previous piece on the topic and civil war preparedness.
The predictions for which I give probabilities are the predictions.... The long elaborate descriptions of scenarios to be prepared for NECESSARILY CANNOT BE, because everytime you describe something additional happening the overall likelihood of all of it happening lowers.
I described about 20 different possible dynamics and scenarios in that piece as preparedness exercise. NECESSARILY the value and detail of a scenario for planning and preparedness is ANTI-CORRELATED with its overall total likelihood since each additional piece of information or dynamic, which is valuable for preparedness, is another thing that may or may not happen.
In short I give probability predictions in keeping with the norms of Less-Wrong rationalism because that is valuable for declaring your priors, then I give the elaborate scenario planning, because that is how militaries and serious organizations wargame.
Specifically the mass rioting if Trump won, I expect that would have 100% happened if he had won the electoral college but lost the popular vote (which strikes me as a vastly more likely scenario than what happened given his track record) then there would have been a cause to argue Trump's win was a result of systemic white supremacy and the American system favouring white rural voters over urban voters... which could have been ginned up by media like the summer of Floyd... Trump's total electoral victory was very unlikely given available information (most odds had him 40-45% to lose and presumably another 20-30 to only win closely)
His incredibly decisive victory (contrary to his previous 2 elections) was an surprising factor... though there's still a fair amount that can go wrong between here and inauguration, or in his first year... not least 2 very unstable wars right now.
It's a little confusing to say that it's not a prediction when you say that sometimes is going to happen. It did not seem to me that this part of the essay was hedged as one possibility, rather, you seemed fairly confident that it would happen.
Indeed, but there were two plausible scenarios listed for the outcome of the election based on who won, so I think it's fair to evaluate one conditional now that we know the outcome.
I don't believe this was hedged like this in the original article, although I may have missed it. If not, this seems like post-hoc cope to me.
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