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PaperclipPerfector  10d ago (text post)   33733 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024

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Alright, I'll bite.

  1. 85% chance he gets most loop holes closed. 70% he makes the lives of illegal residents on average worse in some measurable way. 50% chance we get some wide spread e-verify leading to lots of self deportations. 40% chance net migration(new arrivals - deportation of any sort) is negative over his term. 10% chance anything that actually looks like wide spread forced deportation of Illegal immigrants that aren't breaking non-immigration related laws.
  2. 25% only because I don't think the bar for largest in history is really that large and just sending known criminals back might qualify.
  3. 25% chance only because I think he won't really do the tariff thing and I'm going to be super lenient on what counts as lower inflation. If he means deflation and intends to do the tariffs then more like 2%.
  4. Aren't we already basically there? Near there? This site seems to think China leads us by a bit in total MTOE "Million tons of oil equivalent" which seems like something we can't really reverse easily. Maybe if AI goes super big and the data centers live in the US and we produce a bunch of nuclear to run them in 10 years but I don't think we would even really want to put that much effort into this. 20% chance and it'd probably be a mistake to make this a goal.
  5. Depends on what the definition of this is. I could certainly see us bringing more production home in automated factories, I don't think it'd be the win for the middle class people expect it to be. Not sure how to formalize this into a prediction. 70% chance our net trade balance goes up? Almost impossible to do this while fighting inflation.
  6. 60% on tax cuts for the middle class entirely paid for by deficit spending. I don't know about the no tax on tips thing, it's a really quite bad idea. Get ready to be basically required to tip for everything. Bonuses will be renamed tips.
  7. 85% only because Trump himself is a litigious goblin man who obviously doesn't care about freedom of speech but for the branding.
  8. World war three doesn't happen 98%. Peace in the middle easy 10%, almost nothing to do with Trump but he would take credit. Iron Eagle dome 3%, doesn't even really make sense and the attempt is responsible for a lot of the 2% chance ww3 happens, undermining MAD is BAD.
  9. Don't know what this means really.
  10. Don't know how to make this a prediction. There isn't really a migrant crime epidemic. He might do something with Mexico to fight the cartels but I doubt it would succeed, don't know how to make it into a prediction though.

85% only because Trump himself is a litigious goblin man who obviously don't care about freedom of speech but for the branding.

Hah, quite a line right here! but fair. Thanks for biting friend.

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