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Let’s have some ‘black-pilling’ on the mass deportation front.
Mandatory nationwide e-verify and fines for employers (which will probably be blocked by liberal GOP senators + the filibuster anyway) aren’t going to lead to millions of illegal Central Americans self-deporting. By the way, many European countries already have their equivalents of this and still huge huge numbers of illegal migrants. American hospitals will still (under their own duties of care) treat these people for free when they walk in with an ailment, charities will still feed them, plenty of people will still hire them cash-in-hand or in less than scrupulous businesses.
Even the shittiest, worst life possible in America is still an order of magnitude better than life in Guatemala or Honduras for anyone but the tiny local elite. No threats are capable of leading to self-deportation for the bulk of illegal immigrants. They will always take their chances in the US. The worst life possible in the US is better than the average life in Haiti. Heavy enforcement may affect things at the margins, but not the majority.
The pull factor will remain as long as birthright citizenship does. For the last 25 years, the number 1 test for any GOP nominated SCOTUS judge should have been “Will you rule birthright citizenship unconstitutional”, because this is the ONLY thing that matters when it comes to immigration. Instead they decided that maximizing the production of underclass babies was the central duty of American conservatism, and here we are with ACB and so on. Parents sacrifice themselves for their children every day, it is a fundamental behavior. As long as an illegal immigrant evades ICE long enough to have a child (and America is a big, big place), their descendants are as American as you or I. As long as this is the case, illegal immigration will always be huge.
I think appointing judges who would rule the constitution unconstitutional is bad actually.
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What about the Tony Abbot method, as described by the Dreaded Jim here:
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I wouldn't be that black-pilled.
Looking at the illegal immigrant numbers under Trump and then again under Biden you see a huge spike. We will now revert to the 2016-2020 Trump numbers or maybe even less because he's got more buy in this time.
Not everyone will self-deport, but some will. It's probably already happening. Somewhere there is a migrant who is 50/50 on whether to stay or go. Trump's election alone will push him to 51/49 and he'll leave.
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#2 is true for Haiti, but not as much for other parts of Latin America. Honduras, Guatemala, etc are crappy places to live, but they’re ‘normal lower middle income country’ crappy, not ‘Haiti Afghanistan and the worst parts of sub Saharan Africa’ crappy. There are plenty of underclass Americans who split a rented bedroom in a bad neighborhood, ride bikes, and eat shitty food while working two crappy jobs. You are drastically overestimating the standard of living of Americans who, for whatever reason, cannot function normally.
On the other hand, economic growth in Mexico and declining TFR in Latin America reduces immigration pressure to begin with.
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