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naraburns  nihil supernum  12d ago (text post)   26773 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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I'd expect a minimum of 5m additional ballots for Harris from California alone

CNN says that they are 58% counted, amounting to just about 10M votes -- which only leaves like 5M total there, no?

I agree that it will be a near-ish thing, but Trump leads by ~5M right now, and most non-CA (or AZ, WTF) states are pretty much done counting -- he might lose the plurality, but I think he still beats Kamala by a bit.

At least if I'm reading things correctly, that's 10M currently counted, for a total of around 17.25m ballots cast, and 7.25m remaining uncounted. 58% of that would be ~4.1m, but between county breakdowns and mail-ins breaking more toward Dem in general I'd guess 5m is a lot more reasonable minimum, giving a 12.5-6.5m split in the final vote count for the state. That'd be pretty comparable in final result to the 2020 11m-6m.

Yeah, my head math is a little off there -- even still, if she gets 5/7.5 remaining, Trump gets 2.5 and is still a couple million ahead. AFAICT there's no other big states with enough left to count (or that kind of margin) to catch her up.

Washington State has another 1.3m, Oregon and Colorado 0.6m, Arizona 1.2m, Maryland and Illinois and Utah 0.5m. I think Trump still (somehow!) wins the popular vote if the late ballots follow state-wide trends, and even if they're pretty blue, it's still either a win or so close as to be a tie. It's just not likely that total turnout is that much lower than the 2020 election as today's highlights suggest.

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