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naraburns  nihil supernum  16d ago (text post)   26864 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

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But there's still surely a 5% or 10% chance that someone other than Trump gets sworn in next, I would think.

seems huge overestimate and I would bet money against it (up to 1:100 odds, counting transaction costs and risks)

Trump's had two solid assassination attempts, and the Secret Service pretty clearly ain't what they used to be. Blues are all-in that this is a fascist takeover. In 175 million Americans, it would be pretty amazing if there weren't a few more willing to have a go to save the nation, capable of planning better, and coherent enough to make a go of it.

No, they aren’t.

Most outlets are only calling him fascist in conjunction with last week’s news. Going forward, they prefer “dangerous,” “unpredictable,” or “authoritarian.”

More importantly, they aren’t insinuating a takeover. He appears to have won fair and square.

I think both are moot points. The mind which decides to strike a blow against fascism is just as detached from reality as the one that thinks he’ll impress Jodie Foster. Stochastic terrorism is overrated.

That is why I give odds at 1:100, not 1:1000 (note: these are real odds, betting involves extra risks and on bet itself here margin is thin enough to make betting useless for profiting on it)

He also doesn't need to make any more appearances in front of large crowds until the inauguration, which will presumably be covered really well because it involves lots of important people besides Trump. I'm fairly certain he'll survive until January.

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