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naraburns  nihil supernum  9d ago (text post)   26719 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Georgia looks good for Trump. North Carolina coming in a bit shaky. Not sure how people are updating so much.

Yeah I don't know either.

Out-there hypothesis: Similar to how hedge funders look at satellite images of parking lots to predict company earnings, a very sophisticated trader could count the number of black people in line at polling stations.

Less out-there: Apparently Florida posts almost real-time data about who voted. And Trump is crushing. So, to the limited extent that can Florida turnout can be projected on to other states, Trump is outperforming.

Apparently Florida posts almost real-time data about who voted.

Why is Florida so efficient at counting votes? What do they actually do differently?

I am sure some hedge funds employ their own private polling services, plus field guys to check turnout. You'd be amazed the depths hedge funds go to get an edge. note how DJT stock crashed 30% on Thursday and Friday before that surprise Saturday Iowa poll , but DJT was flat on overnight Monday/Sunday trading. I am guessing some hedge funds were privy to those Iowa results.

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