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PaperclipPerfector  8d ago (text post)   32519 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 4, 2024

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My understanding is that contra the popular narratives on /r/noncredibledefense the Ukrainians' major bottleneck is more equipment than it is manpower, and that they are specifically trying to preserve thier youth demographic to maximize future potential.

Yes, my understanding is that the entire reason for the 18 - 25 conscription ban is to preserve the youth demographic they badly need.

It definitely seems plausible to me that they are shorter on equipment than they are on manpower, but they wouldn't have lowered conscription standards if manpower was abundant. Of course, in an existential war you can hardly have too many of either if you are losing and Russia absolutely has them beat on both fronts.

Russia absolutely has them beat on both fronts.

Ukraine had 2x to 3x advantage in soldiers at front in mid-late 2022

Correct, but that was two years ago. Even if the Russians still don't have front-like troop superiority, they have larger manpower reserves and have narrowed the deployed troop gap considerably.

Manpower might not matter if people do not want to fight and Russian propaganda faces much more difficult task than Ukrainian. Russia relies on increasingly large money to hire people for war. The 18-25 range is not subject to war mobilization, but they are subject to common draft as they were in pre-war times (unless they get exemption like getting education or something), so maybe changing it won't do much

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