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Notes -
The 2012 senate election in MO was complicated by Todd Akin being an idiot and talking about "legitimate rape," during a time when such a scandal could actually bring a candidate down. McCaskill's margins were much smaller in 2006, and when her seat came up for re-election in 2018, Hawley won handily. A more apt comparison for the 2012 Missouri senate election would be the 2017 special election in Alabama, where Doug Jones (D) beat Roy Moore (R) because of accusations of sex abuse (which he essentially admitted were true) against Moore, and then in the very next election lost his seat. Although the margins were much smaller, because we're definitely more polarized in the past 8 years than in 2012!
Ok, fair, I’d forgotten about Todd Akin.
I stand by my statement that Iowa voting for Obama in 2012 doesn’t make it competitive for democrats. So did Maine’s 2nd district, so did Ohio, so did Florida.
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