Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
Netanyahu is making the most of his time before November 6th. He knows that a Kamala fumble on this could tank her campaign. So dude is bombing away her her hands are tied.
Iran, even more than Russia, is an information vacuum for western media. How stable is Khamenei's hold on Iran? Their economy is in the shitter. Khamenei at 85, could drop dead anytime. Their 2nd in command (Riasi) died this year. Now Iran has lost its proxies & is getting pummeled on their home ground. Their nuclear program has been knee-capped
Iran looks poised for a dirty succession battle. Iran has been run by clerics since the Shah was pushed out. So, the next supreme leader would need to be a cleric. Riasi was being groomed as a fellow Ayatollah and Prime minister, but he's dead. The current PM is a moderate doctor with insufficient religious creds. Khamenei's son is an Ayatollah, but isn't well liked. And every other person in running is either just as old (80+) or too weak.
There's a stark difference in Tehran's liberal temperament vs the hyper-conservative country side. I don't see Iran staying in it's Post-80s backwater state for much longer. Iran has the same HDI as China & with infinite oil. As a free market economy, it could pass Turkey/Mexico in productivity within a decade or two. With Hezbollah and Hamas defused, what's the point of being an anti-western Shia Islamist nation ?
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