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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024

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Polling aggregators almost invariably create averages for state polling, too. The people giving probabilities, the modelers, also base their modeled outcomes off of state polls, so they're aware the Electoral College exists.

What's the actual record of prediction markets?

What's the actual record of prediction markets?

Pretty good.

Until recently, the biggest and most liquid prediction markets revolved around sports gambling. They are quite good at prediction, but skilled gamblers can do slightly better when the markets exhibit bias.

For example, if the Yankees are playing the Royals, maybe the Yankees will be favored by more than they should since there are more Yankees fans with more dollars than Royals fans.

Obviously, the more money that is involved, the better the market will be. So far, $2.4 billion has been wagered on Trump v. Harris on Polymarket.

It's hard to say because until recently they were borderline illegal and illiquid