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Notes -
Yarvin is being a pretty good scientist here. He has a theory of history (one that actually holds up under scrutiny, unlike the Narrative Theory of History) that can actually lead him to making pretty accurate predictions about what kinds of things will happen— and he can do so making those predictions before the fact, something the Narrative Theory cannot do. Yes, he’s wrong more often, but it’s because he’s actually making a falsifiable prediction, not a prediction that can be nuanced into meaning whatever he needs it to mean. The “nuance” of the Narrative is exactly an attempt at avoiding falsifiable predictions. If they’re “wrong” it’s because they were misunderstood and if you just understood how complicated the system actually is, they were right, as always if only you understood the nuances.
The “Historian Predicted a bunch of Presidential Elections” bit is to me, exactly that. The keys are vague. Kamala can be an incumbent. Wars mean exactly what they need to mean. The economic indicators used can be anything. So even if he’s wrong, it’s actually right, but you missed the nuance.
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