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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   30012 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024

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No? The first data I found claims that early voting by mail was from voters registered 31% R to 45% D (24% minor or no affiliation), versus early in-person votes from voters registered 45% R to 32% D. That's not as large as the "how could you go out in public during a pandemic" vs "are you going to be a shut-in the rest of your life" bluster to pollsters before the election would have suggested, but it's still pretty large, and that's for the state as a whole; I wouldn't be surprised if the less moderate Democrats and more moderate Republicans were disproportionately in the larger cities.

I may not have been thinking of Florida, and was definitely thinking of actual vote tallies rather than "registered as" -- but regardless, 45-32 is nothing like the 90%+ D in the late-nite Biden drops seen in other places.

Isn't "other places" apples-to-oranges, though? The city of Milwaukee was at 19.3% for Trump in 2016. If the mail-in voting included around 40% of those voters plus 60% of anti-Trump voters just like in Florida as a whole, you'd expect 14% for Trump among mail-in ballots. They saw 14% for Trump in the big "drop" of mail-in ballots, part of 19.6% for Trump on the whole. The math here really does check out.

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