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Does anyone think that the US elections are a little overhyped? I keep hearing people hypothesize 'maybe they're waiting for after the elections to release the new AI model' or 'oh shares are waiting for the election before there are any swings' and such things.
US elections are important. There are significant differences between the candidates. It does have consequences. But are they this universally impactful in the short-term? Is the whole world really holding its breath? I think the Israelis or the Russians have some interest in the election outcome but it's not a primary factor in their decision-making, whatever they're doing they're fundamentally going to keep doing.
I get the sense that the intense media coverage is making people make connections that aren't really there.
Press X to doubt. Not because I don’t think some business decisions might wait until they know the outcome, but because the state has so much inertia that it won’t matter all that much for the legal/regulatory system who actually wins. So it’s not going to make much impact beyond highly politicized business decisions. The environmental/green projects might be impacted, maybe some B2B projects that help with DEI compliance, maybe something else that depends on government funding or intervention. I don’t think a truly innovative AI project is that kind of a decision, nor are 90% of business decisions. The legal environment is pretty stable and a decision made today is going to be based on stable laws not the people decorating the Oval Office.
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People who say such things are probably thinking back to similar events in the past, such as Pfizer and the FDA waiting to announce that they had developed a successful vaccine until the week after the 2020 election, when an earlier announcement would presumably have helped Trump. But I would guess that such occurrences are quite rare and that, as you said, people are making connections that aren’t really there.
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Yes. But then, I disagree with you on the "US elections are important" and "does have consequences" part. I think American democracy is mostly a sham, elections don't matter — elected politicians are mere figureheads, and all power belongs to various institutions — like the permanent bureaucracy, the various NGOs, the upper echelons of academia — fully insulated from electoral outcomes.
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Tons of hype. Maybe 99% hype.
Ok, maybe that's not fair...the big deal is that there's always a chance something different could happen. I'm just inured to a political class of the lowest common denominator and the resulting chaos.
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