This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Here's a genuine thought I had about a tactic that is probably illegal but might not have been tried yet:
What is somebody 'gifted' $100 worth of Trump "yes" shares to friends and family who might be on the fence (and residing in swing states), with absolutely ZERO strings attached... but the shares do not vest/aren't directly accessible until after the election (so they can't just sell them and turn right around and buy Harris). You give them no instructions, make no requests, and in fact refuse to state who you support/are voting for if pressed. So while the implication of what you're doing is clear, and they can probably figure out the incentives, you have made no statements which would implicate intentions to buy votes to bring about a particular political outcome.
The chances of getting arrested for trying this must be near 100%. And the strat is easily countered if some other party distributes an equivalent value of Harris shares. But I am genuinely curious if there is some way to structure things to make it financially profitable for an otherwise 'undecided' swing state voter to acquire shares for each candidate and trade them using solely the knowledge that their own vote will have some real chance of impacting the outcome.
Also:
Is it theoretically possible for a prediction market to generate a real life preference cascade in favor of a given candidate? It seems like it could happen as people realize the money is beginning to heavily favor one over the other, and they, too, can turn a profit if they buy in and vote for the apparently-dominant candidate.
If anyone's trying market manipulation, that would be a possible goal... but I don't think prediction markets are relevant enough to have that kind of impact... yet.
Can't wait until the 2026 elections when candidates will have financial analysts on staff to interpret market swings and respond instantly to shifts in their own chances of victory. Pleasing the market will suddenly become more important that merely polling well.
Also can't wait until the first time a candidate gets assassinated solely because someone has a HUGE bet riding on them losing an election.
I will say that a Trump win sitting at 60-66% chances FEELS right to me.
I keep saying that Kamala can't maintain popularity without the media pulling all the weight for her. She is, personally, very unimpressive and can come across as straight up insincere at best, and utterly out of her depth at worst. Bad product, good marketing. But the marketing is starting to crack, indeed some journos seem to be breaking ranks a bit (not in the tank for Trump, mind). The more she does off-script appearances the worse impression she gives off.
I genuinely think she might have had a better chance doing Biden's 2020 strat of hiding in basement most of the time.
So in short, she's got the die-hard Dem base + the anti-Trump brigade on lock, but I think she utterly lacks cross-demographic appeal AND has been boxed in by the dueling demands of demographics they DO have support from, such that any attempts to outreach sincerely to outgroups will be interpreted as defection.
I also expect the markets to narrow in a bit as we come closer to the election and people decide to close out their positions at a marginal profit rather than actually take the dice roll. If somebody bought a bunch of Trump shares at ~45-50% and can sell them for 55-60% that's a decent profit for a short period trade.
If anybody rolls into election night holding substantial Trump Win shares they bought back in late July or even August, I will commend them for having tremendous balls and/or diamond hands.
More options
Context Copy link