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An interesting question is why IQ suppresses fertility rates. We know, incidentally, that high IQ's are strongly correlated with poor sexual/romantic success. Maybe it's not a coincidence that ultra-high IQ groups like Ashkenazim and Tambrams use arranged marriages(doesn't Japan widely use don't-call-it-arranged marriages?). It also seems like, in the US, groups with higher out-of-wedlock birth rates are the ones which see the most dysgenic IQ selection.
There's only one recorded case of a virgin birth in human history. Kinda hard to have kids without a partner. I suspect that within marriage fertility rates are not particularly correlated with IQ.
Poor romantic success can't be the only explanation https://www.emilkirkegaard.com/p/not-just-dysgenic-outcomes-but-dysgenic [intentions too]
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My understanding is that, in the developed world, IQ (or at least, earnings and education as IQ proxies) are positively correlated with male fertility but negatively correlated for female fertility.
Basically, smart men earn lots of money and so can attract a wife more easily, while being able to afford to house more children.
Smart women spend their most fertile years in education and 'greedy' careers, leaving little time for babymaking.
High fertility among low IQ people was previously driven by teenage pregnancy, but that has mostly disappeared in the past couple of decades
My understanding is that the correlation of male IQ with fertility is limited to men with conservative attitudes about gender- liberal men don't get a fertility boost from higher IQs(presumably this is because men with more conservative attitudes about gender are more willing to 'marry down' on average- the surgeon will go for a cute nurse where infectious disease docs are mostly interested in ObGyns and pediatricians with the usual fertility penalty from decade long higher ed tracks), but that conversely sudden spikes in male wealth(eg male lottery winners) lead to fertility increases regardless of IQ so I think you've probably gotten the mechanism right.
Out of marriage fertility is declining, including among low-IQ people, but it's still much higher among the poor and dumb than among wealthy, educated, smart people, and differences in developed world TFR tend to be driven by out of wedlock childbearing because married couples tend have similar TFRs in western societies.
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