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Notes -
Seems possible, but also really stupid unless you think higher odds on Polymarket actually changes the real odds more than trivially.
If the market becomes obviously wrong (like Trump at 85%) then it will attract essentially unlimited money on the other side of the bet that will make it impossible for a single whale to fight.
They say that markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. But that's actually NOT TRUE about prediction markets because they have a concrete end date.
There's still risk discounting to account for. Even if the true odds are, say, 50-50: to counteract 25m of dumb money, the sharp traders need a bankroll in the order of billions of dollars to avoid kelly ruin, i.e. approximately the total volume on that market right now.
True enough. But 1 billion is a tiny amount of the available hot money, which is in the trillions. There's already been a couple billion gambled on this market.
Among high net worth people, there is a huge demand for investments which are both positive alpha and uncorrelated from the stock market. They are rare and precious. Hell, if Trump was at 85% right now, I'd throw in 50k myself.
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