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They were all wrong, but Nate was less wrong ,so that makes him the winner in this regard. His model was more accurate.
No, Nate isn't "less wrong" because 95% chance of winning and 70% chance of winning don't actually have a meaning in this context. How could you even make such a judgement? How do you know that if we had access to 100 different universes with the exact same 2016 race, Hillary doesn't win 95% of them?
It's absurd to claim that Nate Silver's model was more accurate because it gave marginally better odds of a Trump victory; that's not even getting into the fact that absolutely no new polls were available to Nate that showed a tightening race - this was purely Nate fudging the numbers because he knew something was off (something he used to constantly do with his sports prediction spreadsheets he made his bones on)
I disagree. By this logic, no polling can be considered useful or skill does not exist in terms of polling. Obviously one cannot redo the election hundreds of times or split off many universes.
Nate wasn't doing polling, he was placing odds on election outcomes. Why you think "that logic" has anything do with the potential accuracy of any given poll is beyond me.
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