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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   8494 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 14, 2024

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I'll take credit for a decent prediction back when she became the candidate:

I continue to be near certain she ends up dragging in the polls when the honeymoon period ends and she actually makes public appearances."

I could not have anticipated this specific string of bad news, but "Kamala finally does unscripted interviews and comes across HORRIBLY" is exactly what I expected. Bad Product with good marketing. A fucking TAYLOR SWIFT endorsement didn't even help Harris! Granted, if Swift actually lent her muscle to the campaign itself it might have nudged things.

"JD Vance, an attorney with a YALE LAW SCHOOL Degree outperforms Walz in the VP Debate" was also on my bingo card.

I have to admit I was wrong on my prediction for the Trump-Harris debate.

I think I reasoned correctly with regard to the candidates, but did NOT foresee it becoming a 3 v. 1 with the Moderators basically carrying Kamala over the line, and thus the subsequent increase in her polls.

But she is precisely what she's always been, and I don't think it is possible to rehab her public image any further at this point. I do not know what affirmative action (heh) she could take to goose her polls, and it is extremely unlikely that Trump does something that actually hurts his standing much, or any new revelations come out that actually hurt him.

Also, several of the various legal cases against him appear to be imploding. Even the one where he was already found guilty.

I say this with pun slightly intended: The Dems appear to be mostly out of ammo. The one thing that is still out there is the extent to which they CAN get out the vote and/or the extent that election fraud does actually occur. I make no specific claims, this is OBVIOUSLY still a close election.

However I also expect that given the intense scrutiny on election integrity, some affirmative steps at securing the elections that some states have taken, and the fact that we're not in the same weird world that was Covid-Addled 2020, the fraud factor will be much lesser this time around.

I think the affirmative action that Democrats are still relying on is having a corrupt Eastern European dictatorship assassinate their political opposition for them. I hope and pray that doesn’t work, lest the country turn into Syria for the next ten years.

Time is running out for that expediency. Its been three months since the one that came within an inch of working.

I say this with pun slightly intended: The Dems appear to be mostly out of ammo.

They spent it at the right time. Michigan voters are already returning ballots in huge numbers. Remember, elections no longer happen on the first Tuesday of November, they happen over the course of five or six weeks and then take another week or so to actually count (or a month in California).

Correct, but overall there are WAY fewer mail-in votes.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/01/politics/election-2024-early-voting-data/index.html

https://nypost.com/2024/10/11/us-news/early-voting-is-down-and-the-numbers-hold-bad-news-for-democrats/

Goes to my point, we aren't in Covid Times. There's probably less room to hide any efforts to fudge numbers.

did NOT foresee it becoming a 3 v. 1 with the Moderators basically carrying Kamala over the line

Was this really not foreseeable? It was the only thing I would have given 90%+ certainty to.

Mostly about the degree. I wasn't expecting 'neutral' moderators, but the live and direct fact checking allowed them to speak for Kamala so she didn't have to risk a gaffe with her own responses.

So basically they mitigated a major risk by reducing Kamala's need to speak for herself, and THAT I hadn't foreseen.

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