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Notes -
Here is a brainteaser for you - in polymarket it is 60/40 for Trump, Nate Silver thinks it is 50/50 with a hair towards Trump. Assuming Nate is correct and polymarket is too bullish - is there a strategy that will guarantee making a couple of bucks no matter if Kamala or Trump win?
In order to have a risk-free outcome you'd need to arbitrage against a different site that had better odds for Harris. Say for example the odds were 50/50 on site X. Then you could essentially bet infinite money on each site at no risk (assuming you are certain to get paid for winning!). You could freeroll Harris by betting Polymarket $100 Harris and X $100 Trump, giving you a guaranteed return of $250 if Harris wins (net +$50) or $200 if Trump wins (net 0). Or you could guarantee a few bucks either way by reducing your Polymarket Harris bet to $80, where the nets would be Harris +$20 or Trump +$20.
These situations can be massively profitable IF you are guaranteed to collect, there are not significant tax considerations, etc., etc. Accordingly they are pretty rare for things like sports betting. There are actually syndicates and other operations who do this all day every day by watching price differentials across markets.
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