Be advised: this thread is not for serious in-depth discussion of weighty topics (we have a link for that), this thread is not for anything Culture War related. This thread is for Fun. You got jokes? Share 'em. You got silly questions? Ask 'em.
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I mostly agree with your viewpoint, but the alien enthusiasts have a simple explanation for the visitation pattern: nuclear weapons.
This would also explain ongoing secrecy about Aliens. If the Aliens have any degree of control over nuclear arsenals, then part of the illusion of world powers is shattered.
I do think we have had unusually good luck in that nuclear weapons have been used exactly twice in a real conflict and then never again.
I'm not sure, what nuclear weapons are meant to explain?
Why only visit certain countries?
Why only be in contact with certain governments?
Why only now and not earlier?
OK got it but how do they explain it? I mean, ok, they did not contact us because we didn't have nukes, and now they contacted us because we do have nukes. But why? Why nukes are so important? Civilization that can travel interstellar distances should have stuff that is to our nukes like our nukes are to a bronze spear.
They offer quite a few reasons:
Nukes are unique enough.
is nice I guess, though experience shows me that "fixing" other civilization often results in the death of the one being fixed, or in making it much, much worse.
You imply Earth is their garden? How comes if they never been here before?
Only if you happen to be very close exactly at the time it's tested, and open tests have been banned a while ago, very unlikely
That would be weird. It doesn't allow one to neither physically join any galactic communities nor even communicate with them meaningfully, why would that be a threshold? I'd expect if not FTL transport/communication than at least Expanse-style long range propulsion that makes at least populating the Solar system possible. Without it, the only think nukes allow us is hurt ourselves really badly. That's not a good criteria to join anything but an extreme introvert BSDM club.
I said it up above, but ill have to say it again. I don't believe aliens are actively visiting earth. I guess I'm just around alien enthusiasts often enough that I know many of their arguments.
I originally responded when someone was asking "why don't they have an explanation for X". I then answered ... they do have an explanation for it. If we are going to get into how good the explanation actually is then I just want to stop, because I don't really think they are good explanations. I'm just saying the explanations and the answers are there.
At some point it is closer to a creative writing exercise for them. Making the most elaborate explanation for the presence of aliens while fitting all the available data. Asking them more in depth questions is not a path towards convincing them, its a path towards more fun for them because it adds on an additional challenge to the mass creative writing exercise they are all involved in.
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Human secrecy is easy to understand. That just makes sense to me. Panic, lie about it, now you can’t come clean because you’d have to admit you lied, etc.
Explaining why the aliens themselves would keep themselves a secret is a lot harder. Specifically, why would they hover in this grey zone, where it’s just ambiguous enough that people could believe or not believe. If they wanted to fully hide themselves then they could, and if they just didn’t care at all then they could come down and make it obvious, so why hang out in the grey zone? I don’t think I’ve ever heard a good explanation for this one.
But I’m not interested in UFOs because I think it’s all that likely or even all that plausible. I’m interested because it’s really weird that the government has a whole box of papers labeled “UFOS AND WEIRD ALIEN SHIT - DO NOT TOUCH”, and obviously such a collection of files invites suspicion.
Suppose you're a scientist in charge of establishing relatively orderly and constructive contact with a tribe of buttflap-clad cannibal natives, deep in some godforsaken jungle, who have never seen an outsider before. How do you go about it?
Do you hover over their village in a helicopter while they shit themselves, then jump out to say hello on day one? No way, they're either going to start throwing spears at you or bow down and declare you their god.
Maybe instead you start coming and going on the fringes, observing, letting their hunting parties catch sight of you from a distance. You peek down on them from far above, and if you see them burning you in effigy maybe you hold off on trying to introduce yourself for the moment.
Basically I'm imagining a machine intelligence a million years past singularity going "pspsps" at us like we're a cat because, while we're nothing compared to them, we're way more interesting than all the uninhabited space they usually see. Shitty movies about aliens trying to steal our oceans and fuck our women are the equivalent of buttflap natives building mock helicopters out of bamboo and ritually setting them on fire.
So just keep buzzing their little fighter jets and going "pspsps" at them. Don't even think of landing on the White House lawn and saying hello until they can all at least admit to one another that they see you. What's an extra century or so to you at this point?
If you talk about regular Earth scientists, then a reasonable way would be sending a person or two in a single boat to land on the beach, or just walk up to them on foot, let be observed and leave some easily recognizable usable things for them. Then if they pick it up, see what they do, maybe leave some more. Maybe they would bring some of their own to do a trade (even monkeys trade, it's basically built in). Once some trust is established, attempt personal contact. One may wear some analogue of a flack jacket, and in case things go really south have some snipers not too far but out of sight. But usually if initial contact was established the chance it will lead to immediate attack on contact in person is very low - if they were reluctant to contact, they'd just ignore your initial attempts.
Silent trade worked like that between peoples for a long time in history.
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They might not care either way. If they only talk to or visit the people with control of the nukes, then the secret is secure that way.
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