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Notes -
There are a bunch of detransitioner studies on e.g. google scholar, although their results are kind of all over the place
I concede I made the point poorly, but - here's another example of right-wing anti-trans content, /r/neovaginadisasters. It's more or less what it sounded like, and was pretty NSFW. It got passed around a lot on right-wing reddit discord a few years ago. It had its own selection effect - less-careful people who browed it often came away with a belief that like 50% of SRS cases were disasters that the patient regretted severely. But that kind of content doesn't show up on @realchrisrufo's twitter feed, for a number of reasons (nsfw, not respectable, etc). There's also the kind of anti-trans content that criticizes being trans in a direct material sense - this is what being trans is, this is why it's bad - and you don't see much of that from @realchrisrufo either. One example of the latter is just screenshots from /r/egg_irl, /r/tranmsgender, etc. Even if you're restricting yourself to anti-trans content, the current approach from the center-right is a very highly selected set of content aimed specifically at 'sympathy for poor oppressed under 18 transitioners', combined with 'groomer teachers and doctors and schools', which IMO paints a very biased and confused picture of trans as a whole.
Just to be clear that I understood, you're saying that the focus on under 18's is what makes the picture biased? I don't think that's true at all, like I mentioned adolescents are now the majority of referrals to gender clinics. They're literally the central example of a transitioner.
If you're saying that RadFem and Conservative activists are using detransitioners to push their political goals, and that results in a picture that's biased and confused, I agree. Actually listening to a detransitioner will quickly disabuse you of any simplistic ideology-driven views (whether lefty or conservative), but at the moment conservatives have more to gain than to lose from highlighting detransitioners, while for progressives it's the opposite, resulting in the discourse being what it is.
Could you explain?
This is probably on the more obvious side, but if you come from a left-wing view, the existence of detransitioners is the first problem. Progressives are relying a lot on the idea that gender identity is immutable, and that affirmation is the best treatment, so someone regretting their decision is a punch to the gut from the get-go. Another thing is that over the years they painted a very rosy view of how rigorous the transition process is, while a common theme among detrans stories is they're being waved through straight to hormones, or even to surgeries, with no one being particularly interested in any other issues they might have.
On the other hand, if you're right wing, you'll quickly discover you can't use detrans people to score an easy win either. While there's a good deal of social contagion going on, some of these kids do feel a deep discomfort with their bodies, and are just choosing to live with it. So also right off the bat, if you want to dismiss dysphoria as a whole, you'll be in for a surprise. Another common theme in the detrans stories is that apparently 2010's feminists had a point, because a lot of the stuff they were complaining about back then, from representation in the media to sexual harassment, is what drove some of these girls to want to opt out of girlhood. Another thing is that despite all the rainbow flags, there does seem to be some background homophobia in society, to the point some people prefer to give it a shot to transition to be "straight" rather than just come out as gay. So if conservatives want to stop kids getting transed, they might need to take a look at how they approach these topics.
So not exactly a refutation or weakness of the detransition thing, but more that it highlights uncomfortable questions? I can agree with that.
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I don't think anyone in this thread is trying to paint any kind of picture of trans as a whole. My point was really about under 18 transitioners specifically, in particular among the same population (adolescent girls) who seem to be susceptible to other sociogenic mental illnesses, and specifically among whom transgenderism has exploded in the past few years.
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