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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 7, 2024

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The Australian military is in a similar position. We only field a very small force, so there are few economies of scale, little learning by doing. There aren't usually any serious threats that we can handle, so we can afford to bungle submarine procurement catastrophically. We've been trying to replace the dodgy Collins-class submarines (Swedish-designed but locally built) since 2007. First we were going with Japan. Then France. Now the UK and America. All of this indecision cost us enormous amounts of time and money.

The new plan is to buy Virginias from the US (America can't even produce enough for their own needs, let alone ours) and then acquire a joint Anglo-American sub that hasn't even been designed yet sometime in the 2030s, hopefully fielded by 2040.

Our defence procurement is addicted to buying only the most expensive technologies in tiny numbers and then modifying or changing requirements to cause even longer delays before they enter service. For instance, we buy US Switchblade drones. They're expensive and ineffectual compared to refitted commercial drones used on the battlefield in Ukraine but I'm sure they meet all the gilded requirements written up by some Canberra official.

Everything moves at an absolutely glacial pace since everyone knows the US will be doing all the heavy lifting in any serious war and that our own capabilities have basically nothing to do with outcomes. About the only thing we've done tangibly on the submarine front is funded US submarine construction to speed up Virginia production. We're buying massively underarmed frigates at ridiculous prices (though the US isn't doing very well with frigates either).

I suspect Canada is in the same boat, the Armed Forces have no incentive to be capable. Imagine if the Canadian military was a really top-notch force, superbly efficient. So what, the Chinese could sweep them aside because of the massive difference in scale. We have 7 frigates and 3 destroyers (each maybe half as capable as a US Arleigh Burke), Canada has 12 frigates. China has 50 destroyers and 47 frigates, many much more modern and capable than anything in our fleets.

Our defence procurement is addicted to buying only the most expensive technologies in tiny numbers and then modifying or changing requirements to cause even longer delays before they enter service.

Yeah, though I would argue subs is the one asset where it makes sense to put a lot into a few examples of expensive technology, especially if we're talking nuclear submarines. This is because once a nuclear submarine leaves port, it could be almost anywhere. Its potential is felt by your enemies even in its absence, because they cannot confirm its absence. So one nuclear submarine on patrol has the psychological and deterrent impact of many submarines.