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PaperclipPerfector  22d ago (text post)   30993 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 30, 2024

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Governments that have put a lot of effort into trying to increase the population, such as modern Russia's government, have not seen much success, so I doubt that the low modern fertility rates have much to do with governments trying to lower fertility rates. I think that fertility rates are just something that governments, even relatively authoritarian governments, do not have much control over. For a government to significantly influence fertility rates it would have to either make sweeping economic and cultural changes somehow, and/or go totalitarian beyond the degree to which even the current Chinese government is totalitarian.

Governments that have put a lot of effort into trying to increase the population, such as modern Russia's government, have not seen much success

A lot of effort by Russia's government: https://youtube.com/watch?v=Xlf2G0O_VY0&t=87

Their latest idea was: Russians don't have enough space to raise kids. Not very original thought, but okay.

  • Russians don't buy enough houses because we only allow mortgages for apartments. Let's allow mortgages for houses.
  • Russians still don't buy enough houses because the interest rates are too high. Let's subsidize their mortgages for new houses so their interest rate is below the key rate.
  • Russians can't buy houses because there aren't enough SFH developers. Let's wait for the invisible hand to solve this.
  • Russians started buying houses, but the prices have tripled because there still aren't enough SFH developers and not enough construction materials. Let's wait for the invisible hand to solve this some more.
  • Russians stopped buying houses with cash because at these prices only subsidized mortgages make sense. Let's wait for the invisible hand to solve this again
  • Oops, we've run out of cash to subsidize new mortgages. Let's stop handing out new subsidized mortgages.
  • Oops, Russians stopped buying new houses altogether because they won't pay 3x the price and 20% interest.
  • Oops, the real estate development market has crashed.
  • Oops, the wave of bankruptcies means that fewer new houses are being built than when we started.
  • Oops, some Russians are stuck paying mortgages for unfinished houses while their existing property is the collateral. Good luck solving that problem in court.

How about a new idea? Let's introduce escrow accounts so that real estate developers can't run away with all your money! Oh, wait, someone has snuck in a clause that this applies only to prefabs, so 95% of the market is not covered.

Governments that have put a lot of effort into trying to increase the population, such as modern Russia's government, have not seen much success, so I doubt that the low modern fertility rates have much to do with governments trying to lower fertility rates.

I don't see how it follows from there, that the resulting reduction in population growth was not deliberate.

I think that fertility rates are just something that governments, even relatively authoritarian governments,

True, it isn't just a matter of government policy, but that doesn't mean the reduction in fertility wasn't premeditated, and implemented from the top.

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