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PaperclipPerfector  1mo ago (text post)   31395 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 30, 2024

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That said, it’s quite puzzling to me from a rationality and decision-theoretic framework to incorporate these kinds of predicted value-shifts into your views.

I think it's the sign of a particularly self-aware mind. The spectrum would go like this:

  • Everyone believes what I believe.
  • Not everyone believes what I believe but they've always been wrong when they didn't.
  • I have been wrong before, but I was always right to believe what I believe (my mistakes are only bad luck, my reasoning and my information are flawless).
  • I have been wrong before, but I always had the correct position for the information I had (my reasoning is flawless but I can sometimes have incomplete or incorrect information).
  • I have been wrong before, sometimes due to my reasoning, but now I am right (my reasoning was flawed, but now it is flawless). <- Most people are here
  • I might be wrong. <- Most people who are not in the previous category are here
  • Considering past trends in my belief, I am probably wrong now. <- You are here

Personally I have always had a hard time pinning down my actual beliefs. I have the habit of being a devil's advocate in the extreme, defending positions whenever I see a hint that they might actually be defensible. So I would probably incorporate the anticipated value shift, even if I find myself on shakier ground to defend for now.

Considering past trends in my belief, I am probably wrong now. <- You are here

I'd go one step further. What he expressed is closer to

  • Most beliefs and values, including the ones I hold now and the ones I will hold in the future, are the end product of a process of ultimately self-serving rationalisation and mental gymnastics

I first saw this taxonomy on the perhaps slightly unfortunately named Hoe Math YouTube channel. Is that where you caught it too, or is it a more established framework?

No, that's just how I schematize it personally. Thanks for the link, though, that's a very interesting video!

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