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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   1144 thread views

Transnational Thursday for September 26, 2024

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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I think it'll happen. It's a now or never moment for Israel. Waning support for Israel in the US. October 7th was the perfect excuse to deal with Hamas and Gaza the way they wanted. Now the US presidential elections are coming up. It's the perfect time to handle Hezbollah the way they want. After which they'll possibly go after Iran, with or without the US. And if the US doesn't join, they might use nukes.

I think this one is for all the marbles.

Ground invasions into urban areas against terrorists hiding behind a hostile population under the constraints of modern human rights is a complete and utter nightmare. I can understand the impulse, but nothing good will come of it.

Uh, Lebanon’s population has nowhere near the level of support for Hezbollah that Gaza’s did for Hamas. I mean obviously the Christians have seen tensions with Hezbollah ramp up recently but the Sunnis also seem to hate Hezbollah- they just don’t like Israel any more.

In 2006 the MO was to evacuate the area of civilians, and consider anyone who stays a hostile target. In Gaza the civilians don’t have anywhere else to go, but Lebanon is big enough to make this work. (also a lot are evacuating to Syria, which probably won’t be invaded at all)

2006 is considered by many a dramatic failure, though, and civilians - or people pretending to be - just staying behind anyway will be treated by world politics and media no different than other civilians.

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